Tech-Leads-1H -> 2H Performance
2026: XLK is the best first-half sector (+32.5%) — the S&P 2nd half has been positive 100% of the time historically (median +9.8%). Median 2H forward: +9.8%. Tech led the first half — second half has historically been bullish.
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When Technology (XLK) is the best-performing S&P sector in the first half of the year, the index second half has historically been positive every time (median ~+7.7%). Sector-leadership conditional on the SPDR sector ETFs (sample from late-1998 inception).
- 5 signals since 1990-01-01.
- 2026: XLK is the best first-half sector (+32.5%) — the S&P 2nd half has been positive 100% of the time historically (median +9.8%). Median 2H forward: +9.8%. Tech led the first half — second half has historically been bullish.
When to run this study
Run mid-year (after June close). When Technology (XLK) is the best-performing S&P sector in the first half, the index second half has historically been positive every time (median ~+7.7%). A bullish second-half tell when tech leads.
Historical results
Years XLK Was the Best First-Half Sector (5)
| Year | XLK 1H % | S&P 2H % |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 40.32 | 7.18 |
| 2020 | 14.90 | 21.15 |
| 2019 | 26.76 | 9.82 |
| 2012 | 13.69 | 4.70 |
| 2009 | 19.30 | 21.30 |