20-Week MA Touch
QQQ tests its 20-week MA 3.3x a year; 53% close back above the same week and only 7% stay below beyond 3 weeks.
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What actually happens when an index in an uptrend tests its 20-week moving average. Counts every touch-from-above, then reports how often the test is bought immediately, the full distribution of consecutive weeks spent below when it is not, and forward 1W/1M/3M/6M returns measured from the touch week. Touches that occur below the 40-week MA are excluded — a test on the way down is a different event and blending the two makes the base rates meaningless.
- 55 signals since 2011-03-11.
- QQQ tests its 20-week MA 3.3x a year; 53% close back above the same week and only 7% stay below beyond 3 weeks.
When to run this study
Run when a major index is testing or has just broken its 20-week moving average. Answers the only question that matters at a test: how often does a touch get bought, how long do the failures stay below, and what have forward returns looked like from the touch week. Most useful mid-correction, when the temptation is to treat an ordinary test as a trend change.
Historical results
Base rates at the touch
| Metric | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Touches | 55 | 3.3 per year since 2011 |
| Closed back above same week | 53% | 29 of 55 — the test was bought immediately |
| Stayed below > 3 weeks | 7% | 4 of 54 resolved episodes |
| Median weeks below (when it broke) | 1 | consecutive weekly closes under the MA |