VIX 1-StdDev Elevated Days
Median 1M return: +3.6%, 69% win rate.
▶ View the live, interactive version with full charts →
Days when VIX closes above 1 standard deviation from its historical mean (~27.3) — episode entry, consecutive-day streak, and exit-signal forward returns on SPY.
- 48 signals since 1990.
- Median 1M return: +3.6%, 69% win rate.
- Signal 2026-03-26 (~81td ago): 3M = +15.2% (hist. median +6.4%, above by 8.8%). Next window: 6M (45td remaining), hist. median +10.8%.
- VIX at 18.6 — below threshold (27.3)
VIX Now
18.6
61th pct vs history
Threshold
27.3
mean 19.5 + 1 std dev
2026 Days Above
4
avg 30/yr historically
Avg SPY Return
+4.8%
years with 10+ elevated days
Episodes
48
since 1990
When to run this study
Run when VIX closes above 27 (1 standard deviation above its historical mean of ~19.5). Answers: how unusual is today's fear level historically, what did SPY return in prior years with similar VIX regimes, and how long does it typically take before forward returns turn positive after VIX spikes this high?
Historical results
Annual Days VIX > 27.3 vs SPY Return
| Year | Days VIX>27.3 | SPY Annual Return | vs Avg Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | 4 | 9.38 | -26 |
| 2025 | 14 | 18.01 | -16 |
| 2024 | 3 | 25.59 | -27 |
| 2022 | 87 | -18.65 | 57 |
| 2021 | 12 | 30.51 | -18 |
| 2020 | 121 | 17.24 | 91 |
| 2018 | 11 | -5.25 | -19 |
| 2016 | 2 | 13.59 | -28 |
| 2015 | 7 | 1.29 | -23 |
| 2011 | 87 | 0.85 | 57 |
| 2010 | 36 | 13.14 | 6 |
| 2009 | 136 | 22.65 | 106 |
| 2008 | 98 | -36.24 | 68 |
| 2007 | 10 | 5.33 | -20 |