Turn-of-Year Barometer
TOY barometer: +6.31% (provisional, window incomplete) — tracking bullish. Median FY forward: +15.9%.
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SPY Nov 20 → Jan 19 return predicts full-year direction.
- 32 signals since 1980-01-01.
- TOY barometer: +6.31% (provisional, window incomplete) — tracking bullish. Median FY forward: +15.9%.
TOY Reading 2026
+6.31%
Status
Provisional
Threshold
+/-3.0%
As of
2026-06-05
When to run this study
Run any time. Mid-January after Jan 19 the reading is final; before that, a provisional reading is shown. Positive readings (>+3%) historically predict a positive full year for SPY.
Historical results
TOY Reading — All Years (with standard forward windows)
| Year | Trigger Date | TOY % | FY % | 1W | 2W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-01-19 | 6.31 | 11.34 | 0.15 | 0.54 | -0.78 | 2.75 | In progress | ||
| 2025 | 2025-01-19 | 1.54 | 18.01 | 0.30 | 0.03 | 2.57 | -13.75 | 5.86 | 16.04 | Final |
| 2024 | 2024-01-19 | 6.63 | 25.59 | 1.03 | 2.47 | 2.97 | 2.96 | 15.70 | 27.32 | Final |
| 2023 | 2023-01-19 | -1.06 | 26.71 | 4.15 | 7.24 | 4.79 | 6.38 | 17.23 | 26.29 | Final |
| 2022 | 2022-01-19 | -3.04 | -18.65 | -4.07 | 1.24 | -3.25 | -1.25 | -11.07 | -10.95 | Final |
| 2021 | 2021-01-19 | 7.02 | 30.51 | 1.36 | 0.77 | 3.19 | 9.21 | 14.59 | 22.16 | Final |
| 2020 | 2020-01-19 | 7.34 | 17.24 | -2.55 | -2.36 | 1.92 | -14.67 | -1.29 | 16.20 | Final |
| 2019 | 2019-01-19 | 1.48 | 31.09 | -1.01 | 2.06 | 4.48 | 9.42 | 12.84 | 26.69 | Final |
| 2018 | 2018-01-19 | 9.11 | -5.25 | 2.20 | -1.77 | -3.21 | -4.54 | 0.59 | -4.48 | Final |
| 2017 | 2017-01-19 | 3.22 | 20.78 | 1.51 | 0.82 | 4.06 | 4.63 | 10.39 | 26.54 | Final |
| 2016 | 2016-01-19 | -9.62 | 13.59 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 2.14 | 12.19 | 16.15 | 23.16 | Final |
| 2015 | 2015-01-19 | -1.38 | 1.29 | 1.89 | 0.14 | 4.22 | 4.54 | 6.42 | -4.81 | Final |
| 2014 | 2014-01-19 | 3.46 | 14.56 | -3.07 | -5.16 | -0.34 | 2.30 | 8.45 | 12.18 | Final |
| 2013 | 2013-01-19 | 7.32 | 29 | 1.17 | 0.82 | 2.03 | 5.75 | 15.39 | 26.68 | Final |
| 2012 | 2012-01-19 | 10.56 | 14.17 | 0.32 | 0.93 | 3.77 | 5.22 | 5.77 | 15.96 | Final |
Showing 15 of 33 rows — see the live version for all.