SPY 200-DMA Extension
SPY +8.2% above its 200-DMA — below the +10% extension flag
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First SPY close >=10% above its 200-day MA in 3 months — an overextended / overheated flag that has stayed bullish on the 6-12 month horizon.
- 12 signals since 2005-01-01.
- SPY +8.2% above its 200-DMA — below the +10% extension flag
Current Extension
+8.2%
above 200-DMA
Threshold
+10%
Events
12
since 2005
6M Median
+4.9%
91% win
Days Since Event
19
When to run this study
Run daily during strong uptrends. Fires when SPY first closes >=10% above its 200-day MA in 3 months — an overextended / overheated flag. Near-term mean-reversion risk rises, but the 6-12 month forward bias has stayed bullish (~85% positive) historically. A caution gauge, not a sell signal.
Historical results
Forward SPY returns after first-in-3-months extension events
| Window | N | Win% | Median | Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 12 | 66.70 | 0.62 | 0.45 |
| 2W | 12 | 91.70 | 1.10 | 1.47 |
| 1M | 11 | 72.70 | 1.29 | 1.27 |
| 3M | 11 | 72.70 | 3.17 | 1.77 |
| 6M | 11 | 90.90 | 4.86 | 7.27 |
| 9M | 10 | 90 | 14 | 13.79 |
| 12M | 10 | 80 | 16.31 | 16.76 |