10-DMA Persistence
No index in extreme 10-DMA persistence (SPY 29/41, threshold 40/41)
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How many of the last 41 sessions SPY and QQQ closed above their 10-day moving average. Extreme persistence (e.g. 40/41) marks a powerful uptrend with historically strong near-term follow-through.
- 13 signals since 1990-01-01.
- No index in extreme 10-DMA persistence (SPY 29/41, threshold 40/41)
SPY above 10-DMA
29/41
threshold 40/41
QQQ above 10-DMA
29/41
threshold 40/41
When to run this study
Run daily. Fires when an index has closed above its 10-day moving average on nearly all (e.g. 40 of 41) of the trailing sessions — a powerful, persistent uptrend that has historically led to more near-term upside. SPY is the regime anchor; QQQ flags high-beta leadership.
Historical results
SPY forward returns after a 40/41 persistence trigger
| Window | N | Win% | Median | Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 7 | 42.90 | -0.15 | 0.06 |
| 1M | 7 | 42.90 | -1.55 | -0.89 |
| 3M | 6 | 50 | -1.65 | -0.72 |
| 6M | 6 | 66.70 | 1.98 | 3.42 |