Shmita Cycle

Shmita + year-after: -2.9% average, win 39%, deep drawdown in 46% of years. Years 2-6: +12.2%, win 79%, deep drawdown in 11%.

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S&P 500 aligned to the 7-year shmita cycle of the Hebrew calendar: return, win rate and drawdown by year of the cycle, where we are now, and a cycle-length placebo so the result is read honestly. Context and cash-planning reminder, not a signal.

5787 is year 5 of the 7-year shmita cycle. The next shmita year is 5789, 2028-09-21 to 2029-09-10; the historically weak window runs through 2030-09-28.
Shmita + year-after: -2.9% average, win 39%, deep drawdown in 46% of years. Years 2-6: +12.2%, win 79%, deep drawdown in 11%.
Placebo check: every cycle length 4-12 has a worst phase between -4.9% and +2.8%, so the shmita-year number alone is noise-floor. The two-year window (-2.9%) is the only cut that beats the placebo family, most likely the business cycle in disguise. Context and cash-planning only.

Cycle position

Year 5 of 7

Year 5

Next shmita

Sep 2028

24 months away

Shmita yr avg

-3.2%

win 43% · n=14

Year after avg

-2.6%

>20% DD in 50% of yrs

Years 2-6 avg

+12.2%

win 79%

This yr (phase avg)

+16.6%

When to run this study

Run monthly. Context only: use it to remember where we are in the 7-year cycle and to plan a cash build into the shmita year and the year after it.

Historical results

Stats by year of the cycle

Year of cycle	n	Mean %	Median %	Win %	Avg max DD %	>20% DD, % of yrs	Exit window %	Next yr %
1 · Year after shmita	14	-2.60	-4.40	36	-24.40	50	0	14.10
2 · Year 2	14	15.80	16.50	86	-13.50	14	6.10	9.40
3 · Year 3	14	10.10	8.10	64	-14.70	14	1.50	7.50
4 · Year 4	14	8.10	6.30	64	-14.70	14	4.30	17.10
5 · Year 5	14	16.60	13.10	93	-11.30	7	1.30	10.30
6 · Year 6	14	10.40	10.70	86	-12	7	-2.50	-2.50
7 · Shmita year	14	-3.20	-0.40	43	-19.30	43	-5.70	-2.60