Shmita Cycle

Shmita + year-after: -1.3% average, win 41%, deep drawdown in 36% of years. Years 2-6: +13.8%, win 87%, deep drawdown in 6%.

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S&P 500 aligned to the 7-year shmita cycle of the Hebrew calendar: return, win rate and drawdown by year of the cycle, where we are now, and a cycle-length placebo so the result is read honestly. Context and cash-planning reminder, not a signal.

5787 is year 5 of the 7-year shmita cycle. The next shmita year is 5789, 2028-09-21 to 2029-09-10; the historically weak window runs through 2030-09-28.
Shmita + year-after: -1.3% average, win 41%, deep drawdown in 36% of years. Years 2-6: +13.8%, win 87%, deep drawdown in 6%.
Placebo check: every cycle length 4-12 has a worst phase between -6.1% and +7.2%, so the shmita-year number alone is noise-floor. The two-year window (-1.3%) is the only cut that beats the placebo family, most likely the business cycle in disguise. Context and cash-planning only.

Cycle position

Year 5 of 7

Year 5

Next shmita

Sep 2028

23 months away

Shmita yr avg

-0.9%

win 45% · n=11

Year after avg

-1.6%

>20% DD in 36% of yrs

Years 2-6 avg

+13.8%

win 87%

This yr (phase avg)

+10.9%

When to run this study

Run monthly. Context only: use it to remember where we are in the 7-year cycle and to plan a cash build into the shmita year and the year after it.

Historical results

Stats by year of the cycle

Year of cycle	n	Mean %	Median %	Win %	Avg max DD %	>20% DD, % of yrs	Exit window %	Next yr %
1 · Year after shmita	11	-1.60	-4.50	36	-20.60	36	2.50	18.20
2 · Year 2	11	18.90	17	100	-10.10	0	9.10	13.30
3 · Year 3	11	13.90	14.80	73	-13.30	9	3.70	8.20
4 · Year 4	11	9.10	6.30	73	-13	9	2.30	12.10
5 · Year 5	10	10.90	10.50	90	-11.20	10	3.70	15.70
6 · Year 6	11	16.30	10.90	100	-8.90	0	2	0.50
7 · Shmita year	11	-0.90	-0.30	45	-16.30	36	-6.10	-2.40