Long, Shallow Pullback
18 shallow pullbacks since 1928; next month higher 83% of the time against 62%, next six months 82% against 71%.
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The S&P 500 goes two months (42 sessions) without a record close while never closing more than 5% below the last one — the bears had two months and could not get five percent. Fifteen events since 1928. The next month has been higher 87% of the time against a 60% base rate, the next six months 86% against 67%, with the edge present at every horizon. The signal-day close is a level to watch (2026: August 3 at 7,600). Every figure is shown next to the unconditional base rate for the same window.
- 18 signals since 1928-01-01.
- 18 shallow pullbacks since 1928; next month higher 83% of the time against 62%, next six months 82% against 71%.
When to run this study
Run when the index has been drifting sideways under a recent high for six weeks or more without a real correction. The study counts the sessions since the last record close and the deepest drawdown from it; on the 42nd session, if that drawdown never reached 5%, the setup fires and the close that day becomes the level to watch. Historically the next one to six months have been higher far more often than any random stretch. Fifteen events since 1928 — read the base rate beside every number.
Historical results
After the signal (18 events since 1950) against any day
| Forward | N | Median | Worst | Positive | Any day: median | Any day: positive | Edge (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 18 | 0.90 | -2.70 | 72.20 | 0.30 | 56.80 | 15.40 |
| 2W | 18 | 1.20 | -2.90 | 66.70 | 0.60 | 59.10 | 7.50 |
| 1M | 18 | 1.50 | -4.40 | 83.30 | 1.10 | 61.90 | 21.50 |
| 2M | 18 | 1.50 | -7 | 77.80 | 1.90 | 64.50 | 13.30 |
| 3M | 17 | 1.60 | -7.20 | 76.50 | 2.70 | 66.90 | 9.60 |
| 6M | 17 | 4.30 | -11.60 | 82.40 | 5.20 | 70.80 | 11.60 |
| 12M | 17 | 4.90 | -3.70 | 82.40 | 10.70 | 74.70 | 7.70 |