Seasonal Grid
Strongest column: 10-27 → 11-24 at 16-1 in qualifying years against 53-23 in all years, +24 points of edge; nudged 82%.
▶ View the live, interactive version with full charts →
The circulating seasonal table, rebuilt honestly: pick a condition (a 12-month high in the first half of June, a midterm year, Q1 down and Q2 up, and more) and a list of date windows, and get one row per qualifying year with every window side by side, the up-down count and average under each column, the date of that year's high, and this year live at the bottom. Two rows the shared version never shows: what ALL years did in the same windows (the base rate), and whether each column survives moving its dates by a few sessions. S&P 500 since 1950.
- 2026 qualifies (the S&P set a 12-month high in the first half of June, JUN01); 17 prior years since 1950. Now inside 10-08 → 10-27: 7-10 in those years (41%), 38-38 in all years (50%).
- Strongest column: 10-27 → 11-24 at 16-1 in qualifying years against 53-23 in all years, +24 points of edge; nudged 82%.
- Most of any seasonal column is the calendar itself: read the edge over the all-years base, not the win rate.
When to run this study
Read it when a seasonal table is making the rounds ("the S&P has been up 15 of 16 times from Oct 27 to Nov 24 in years like this one"). Pick the same condition and the same windows and you get the same grid, with two extra rows the circulating version never shows: what ALL years did in those windows, and whether the record survives moving the dates a few sessions. This year sits at the bottom, live.
Historical results
Each window: qualifying years vs all years
| Window | Record | Win % | Avg % | Median % | All years | Base % | Base avg % | Edge (pts) | Nudged % | Nudged low % | 2026 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 → 06-22 | 12-5 | 71 | 0.62 | 0.70 | 40-36 | 53 | -0.15 | 18 | 66 | 53 | -1.08 | done |
| 06-29 → 07-14 | 15-2 | 88 | 1.90 | 2.48 | 50-26 | 66 | 1.10 | 22 | 77 | 53 | 1.39 | done |
| 07-28 → 08-04 | 8-9 | 47 | -0.63 | -0.71 | 47-29 | 62 | 0.17 | -15 | 38 | 24 | 4.14 | done |
| 08-18 → 09-19 | 14-3 | 82 | 1.94 | 1.99 | 47-29 | 62 | 0.31 | 21 | 75 | 71 | -0.54 | done |
| 09-26 → 10-06 | 14-3 | 82 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 51-25 | 67 | 0.43 | 15 | 61 | 33 | 1.76 | done |
| 10-08 → 10-27 | 7-10 | 41 | -2.75 | -1.11 | 38-38 | 50 | -0.41 | -9 | 46 | 29 | -1.82 | live |
| 10-27 → 11-24 | 16-1 | 94 | 4.06 | 3.50 | 53-23 | 70 | 2.11 | 24 | 82 | 65 | future | |
| 11-30 → 12-08 | 14-3 | 82 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 52-24 | 68 | 0.61 | 14 | 61 | 0 | future | |
| 12-13 → 12-20 | 7-10 | 41 | -0.32 | -1.10 | 46-30 | 61 | 0.09 | -19 | 51 | 35 | future | |
| 12-20 → 12-30 | 11-6 | 65 | 0.95 | 1.18 | 56-20 | 74 | 0.94 | -9 | 58 | 20 | future |