Seasonal Barometers
17 of 17 graded rules beat the S&P base rate by three points or more; 10 rest on fewer than ten qualifying years.
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Every calendar rule the site tracks on one board: "January and February both green", "April closes at an all-time high", "first 100 days up 8%", two-month thrusts and the rest, seventeen in all. For each, its status this year, its historical win rate, and the S&P 500 base rate for the same anchor and horizon, so the column that matters is the edge in points. Rules with under ten qualifying years are flagged. Replaces the seventeen single-rule pages (still computed, now hidden). Context, not a signal.
- 6 of 17 seasonal rules in force for 2026.
- 17 of 17 graded rules beat the S&P base rate by three points or more; 10 rest on fewer than ten qualifying years.
- Read the edge column, not the win rate: most of a calendar rule's hit rate is the market's own drift.
When to run this study
Run after any month-end, and read it whenever a "the market has never been down after X" claim circulates. Every rule the site tracks is on one board with its status this year, its historical win rate, and the S&P base rate for the same anchor and horizon, so the edge, not the win rate, is what you read. Context only: these are calendar tendencies, not entries.
Historical results
All 17 rules, 2026
| Rule | 2026 | Trigger | Horizon | Rule win % | Base % | Edge (pts) | Years | Sample | Median fwd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April closes at an all-time high | fired | 2026-04-30 | 6M | 100 | 66 | 34 | 6 | thin | 7.80 |
| First 100 trading days up 8% or more | fired | 2026-05-27 | RoY | 100 | 71 | 29 | 5 | thin | 14.50 |
| January closes at an all-time high | fired | 2026-01-30 | 6M | 100 | 73 | 27 | 7 | thin | 5 |
| Tech (XLK) is the best sector of the first half | fired | 2026-06-30 | 6M | 100 | 74 | 26 | 5 | thin | 9.80 |
| Two consecutive 5-day windows each up 2%+ | fired | 2026-04-16 | 6M | 76 | 71 | 6 | 38 | 9.30 | |
| New 12-month high in the first half of June | fired | 2026-06-15 | RoY | 75 | 71 | 4 | 16 | 8.50 | |
| Midterm year with a negative Q1: June (bearish) | pending | 1M | 92 | 45 | 46 | 12 | -1.90 | ||
| May and June both close green | pending | 2026-06-30 | RoY | 100 | 72 | 28 | 7 | thin | 8.40 |
| January and June both close green | pending | 2026-06-30 | RoY | 88 | 72 | 15 | 8 | thin | 8.20 |
| January and February both close green | pending | 2026-02-27 | RoY | 88 | 74 | 14 | 8 | thin | 15.90 |
| April and June both close green | pending | 2026-06-30 | RoY | 86 | 72 | 13 | 7 | thin | 10.90 |
| April and July both close green | pending | 2026-07-30 | RoY | 87 | 75 | 12 | 15 | ||
| February and April both close green | pending | 2026-04-30 | RoY | 82 | 71 | 11 | 11 | 11.90 | |
| Trailing two months up 15% or more | not fired | 1M | 83 | 62 | 21 | 6 | thin | 17.20 | |
| Two straight months each up 4% or more | not fired | 1M | 74 | 62 | 13 | 39 | 6.50 |
Showing 15 of 17 rows — see the live version for all.