RSI Oversold
Median 1M return: +7.2%, 74% win rate.
▶ View the live, interactive version with full charts →
Daily/weekly RSI oversold events with forward return analysis.
- 43 signals since 2000-01-01.
- Median 1M return: +7.2%, 74% win rate.
- SPY RSI at 49.5
Total Events
43
since 2000-01-01
Current RSI
49.5
threshold 30
Above 200D MA
26%
at signal time
Avg 3M Fwd Return
+6.6%
74% win rate
When to run this study
Run when RSI drops below 30 on daily or weekly timeframe. Best during corrections to identify historically high-probability bounce setups — combine with trend context (above/below 200D MA) for best results.
Historical results
Historical RSI Oversold Events (≤ 30)
| Date | RSI(14) | VIX | SPY Price | 200D Regime | % from 52W High | 3D | 1W | 2W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 28.53 | 31.05 | 634.09 | Below 200D MA | -8.58 | 3.34 | 3.92 | 8.20 | 12.24 | |
| 2025-04-04 | 23.43 | 45.31 | 499.55 | Below 200D MA | -17.32 | 8.58 | 5.67 | 1.70 | 10.59 | 23.13 |
| 2025-03-11 | 28.37 | 26.92 | 547.97 | Below 200D MA | -9.30 | 1.24 | 0.92 | 3.83 | -1.02 | 8.81 |
| 2023-10-27 | 29.22 | 21.27 | 398.07 | Below 200D MA | -9.97 | 2.92 | 5.85 | 7.29 | 10.77 | 20.02 |
| 2023-10-03 | 29.02 | 19.78 | 408.64 | Above 200D MA | -7.58 | 1.89 | 3.07 | 3.42 | 0.25 | 11.65 |
| 2022-09-23 | 29.37 | 29.92 | 351.12 | Below 200D MA | -22.08 | 0.70 | -2.93 | -1.40 | 2.97 | 3.95 |
| 2022-01-21 | 26.54 | 28.85 | 413.17 | Below 200D MA | -8.32 | -1.05 | 0.91 | 2.45 | -1.92 | -2.42 |
| 2020-03-23 | 29.59 | 61.59 | 204.94 | Below 200D MA | -33.72 | 17.16 | 17.36 | 18.80 | 25.18 | 39.94 |
| 2020-03-09 | 26.84 | 54.46 | 250.61 | Below 200D MA | -18.95 | -9.52 | -12.54 | -18.22 | -2.75 | 18.55 |
| 2020-02-25 | 28.67 | 27.85 | 285.72 | Above 200D MA | -7.59 | -5.24 | -3.97 | -7.75 | -20.60 | -3.78 |
| 2019-08-05 | 27.95 | 24.59 | 256.92 | Above 200D MA | -6.02 | 3.45 | 1.50 | 3 | 3.60 | 8.36 |
| 2018-12-19 | 28.76 | 25.58 | 224.04 | Below 200D MA | -14.03 | -6.19 | -0.69 | 1.04 | 5.23 | 12.28 |
| 2018-10-24 | 24.63 | 25.23 | 236.58 | Below 200D MA | -9.22 | -0.55 | 2 | 5.91 | -0.78 | -0.01 |
| 2018-10-10 | 23.55 | 22.96 | 248.15 | Above 200D MA | -4.78 | -1.40 | 0.77 | -4.66 | 0.79 | -6.40 |
| 2018-02-05 | 29.14 | 37.32 | 232.30 | Above 200D MA | -7.90 | -2.39 | 0.53 | 2.83 | 3.35 | 1.54 |
Showing 15 of 43 rows — see the live version for all.