RSI Divergence
No fresh RSI/price divergence on SPY
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RSI/price divergences on SPY (daily + weekly): how often they resolve into a move, how long it takes, and how often they fizzle. Bullish = price lower-low + RSI higher-low.
- 125 signals since 1993-01-01.
- No fresh RSI/price divergence on SPY
Daily Hit Rate
18%
n=125
Daily % Fizzle
82%
Weekly Hit Rate
29%
n=34
Median Resolve
10d
daily, hits
When to run this study
Run any time to gauge RSI/price divergences on SPY. Bullish = price lower-low while RSI higher-low; bearish = the mirror. The tables show how often divergences actually resolve into a move (vs fizzle) and how long it takes, on daily and weekly timeframes.
Historical results
Divergence resolution — hit rate, fizzle rate, time to resolve
| Bucket | N | Hit% ⓘ | % Fizzle | Median Resolve | Avg Window Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily · All | 125 | 18.40 | 81.60 | 10d | 1.06 |
| Daily · Bullish | 32 | 37.50 | 62.50 | 10d | 1.53 |
| Daily · Bearish | 93 | 11.80 | 88.20 | 10d | 0.89 |
| Weekly · All | 34 | 29.40 | 70.60 | 8w | 2.57 |
| Weekly · Bullish | 7 | 28.60 | 71.40 | 2w | 1.02 |
| Weekly · Bearish | 27 | 29.60 | 70.40 | 8w | 2.97 |