SteadyTapeQuantitative Market Research

RSI Divergence

Weekly bearish divergence on SPY (0 bars ago) — hist hit 38% (n=16). Bearish divergence present — momentum waning at the highs.

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RSI/price divergences on SPY (daily + weekly): how often they resolve into a move, how long it takes, and how often they fizzle. Bullish = price lower-low + RSI higher-low.

Daily Hit Rate
19%
n=84
Daily % Fizzle
81%
Weekly Hit Rate
40%
n=20
Median Resolve
9d
daily, hits

When to run this study

Run any time to gauge RSI/price divergences on SPY. Bullish = price lower-low while RSI higher-low; bearish = the mirror. The tables show how often divergences actually resolve into a move (vs fizzle) and how long it takes, on daily and weekly timeframes.

Historical results

Divergence resolution — hit rate, fizzle rate, time to resolve

BucketNHit% ⓘ% FizzleMedian ResolveAvg Window Ret
Daily · All8419819d0.92
Daily · Bullish2236.4063.6014d0.78
Daily · Bearish6212.9087.109d0.97
Weekly · All2040606w1.33
Weekly · Bullish450502w1.55
Weekly · Bearish1637.5062.508w1.27