RSI Breadth Oversold
67 spikes since 2005: SPY higher a month later 70% of the time against 67% for any day, with the month's low a median 2.0% below the spike.
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The share of stocks with RSI(14) below 30, measured on the 535-name basket back to 2006, and what SPY and QQQ did after that share spiked. The circulating chart draws lines from every spike to the index and calls it a bottoming phase; this measures it, with the spike threshold set as a percentile of the series and two fixed levels shown beside it. Reports the forward return against the unconditional base rate, how much further the index fell in the month after the spike, and how often a second spike followed within a month. Today's constituents only.
- 67 signals since 2005-01-01.
- 67 spikes since 2005: SPY higher a month later 70% of the time against 67% for any day, with the month's low a median 2.0% below the spike.
When to run this study
Run during a selloff when the "percent of stocks oversold" chart is doing the rounds. It says how the index has behaved after the share of names with RSI(14) under 30 spiked, how much further it typically fell first, and how often the first spike was followed by another within a month. Context for sizing a dip buy, not a trigger.
Historical results
After a spike in the oversold share, against any day (2005–2026, 534 names)
| Condition | Index | N | Further fall | 1W | 1W win | 1M | 1M win | 3M | 3M win | Second spike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | SPY | 5397 | -1.53 | 0.40 | 60 | 1.56 | 67 | 4.04 | 74 | |
| Any day | QQQ | 5397 | -1.95 | 0.56 | 59 | 1.84 | 66 | 4.93 | 74 | |
| Spike >= 12% (top 5%) | SPY | 67 | -1.99 | 1.10 | 66 | 3.60 | 70 | 5.45 | 72 | 55 |
| Spike >= 12% (top 5%) | QQQ | 67 | -2.95 | 1.02 | 66 | 3.94 | 69 | 6.57 | 72 | 55 |
| Fixed >= 20% of basket | SPY | 33 | -2.80 | 0.91 | 61 | 1.63 | 67 | 5.97 | 76 | 42 |
| Fixed >= 20% of basket | QQQ | 33 | -3.38 | 1.63 | 67 | 1.59 | 61 | 6.60 | 73 | 42 |
| Fixed >= 30% of basket | SPY | 18 | -2.77 | 1.05 | 72 | 2.37 | 72 | 6.03 | 72 | 39 |
| Fixed >= 30% of basket | QQQ | 18 | -4.34 | 0.84 | 72 | 2.39 | 61 | 6.27 | 72 | 39 |