Quarterly Scenarios
2026 is “Q1 ↓ · Q2 ↑”: H2 positive 69% of 16 analog years (median +4.5%).
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Classifies every year by the sign of its Q1 and Q2 returns into four scenarios (Q1↑Q2↑ / Q1↓Q2↑ / Q1↑Q2↓ / Q1↓Q2↓) and shows the forward Q3 / Q4 / H2 / full-year outcome for each. The current year drops into its scenario automatically — "Q1 down, Q2 up" has front-run a strong H2.
- 76 signals since 1928-01-01.
- 2026 is “Q1 ↓ · Q2 ↑”: H2 positive 69% of 16 analog years (median +4.5%).
2026 scenario
Q1 ↓ · Q2 ↑
“Q1 ↓ · Q2 ↑” H2
+4.5%
69% positive
Analog years
16
Sample
76 complete years
When to run this study
Run any time after Q2 closes (July onward) to see which of the four Q1/Q2 scenarios the year fell into and what history says about the rest of it. The standout is "Q1 down, Q2 up" — a first-half comeback that has led to a strong H2 far more often than not.
Historical results
Rest-of-year by Q1/Q2 scenario
| Scenario | n | Q3 | Q4 | H2 (Jul–Dec) | H2 +% | Full year | FY +% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 ↑ · Q2 ↑ | 32 | 2 | 5.20 | 7.10 | 84 | 19.70 | 100 |
| Q1 ↓ · Q2 ↑ | 16 | 3.10 | 4.20 | 4.50 | 69 | 4.10 | 62 |
| Q1 ↑ · Q2 ↓ | 14 | 3.20 | 5 | 7.30 | 71 | 11.30 | 79 |
| Q1 ↓ · Q2 ↓ | 14 | -4 | 5.90 | -1.90 | 50 | -11.20 | 14 |
| All years | 76 | 2.60 | 5.20 | 6.30 | 72 | 11.70 | 72 |