Quarterly Scenarios
2026 is “Q1 ↓ · Q2 ↑”: H2 positive 68% of 22 analog years (median +4.5%).
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Classifies every year by the sign of its Q1 and Q2 returns into four scenarios (Q1↑Q2↑ / Q1↓Q2↑ / Q1↑Q2↓ / Q1↓Q2↓) and shows the forward Q3 / Q4 / H2 / full-year outcome for each. The current year drops into its scenario automatically — "Q1 down, Q2 up" has front-run a strong H2.
- 98 signals since 1928-01-01.
- 2026 is “Q1 ↓ · Q2 ↑”: H2 positive 68% of 22 analog years (median +4.5%).
2026 scenario
Q1 ↓ · Q2 ↑
“Q1 ↓ · Q2 ↑” H2
+4.5%
68% positive
Analog years
22
Sample
98 complete years
When to run this study
Run any time after Q2 closes (July onward) to see which of the four Q1/Q2 scenarios the year fell into and what history says about the rest of it. The standout is "Q1 down, Q2 up" — a first-half comeback that has led to a strong H2 far more often than not.
Historical results
Rest-of-year by Q1/Q2 scenario
| Scenario | n | Q3 | Q4 | H2 (Jul–Dec) | H2 +% | Full year | FY +% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 ↑ · Q2 ↑ | 37 | 1.60 | 4.70 | 6.70 | 78 | 19.30 | 95 |
| Q1 ↓ · Q2 ↑ | 22 | 3.10 | 4.20 | 4.50 | 68 | 6.20 | 68 |
| Q1 ↑ · Q2 ↓ | 21 | 3.20 | 4.60 | 4.70 | 62 | 11 | 67 |
| Q1 ↓ · Q2 ↓ | 18 | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.10 | 56 | -11.20 | 11 |
| All years | 98 | 2.90 | 4.60 | 5.50 | 68 | 11.40 | 67 |