QQQ/SPY Leadership
QQQ/SPY ratio within 1% of 200D MA — leadership inflection pending. Median 1 month forward: +1.6%. In bullish normal trend regime: 71% win rate over 21 events.
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QQQ:SPY ratio vs 200D MA — tech-leadership barometer.
- 82 signals since 2000-01-01.
- QQQ/SPY ratio within 1% of 200D MA — leadership inflection pending. Median 1 month forward: +1.6%. In bullish normal trend regime: 71% win rate over 21 events.
Status
Leading
Streak
30d
Ratio
0.9321
200D MA
0.9255
% from MA
+0.71%
4W Change
-1.02%
As of
2026-09-14
When to run this study
Run daily as a regime barometer. The QQQ:SPY ratio above its 200-day MA signals tech leadership — historically a risk-on tape. Sustained breaks below mark defensive rotation; watch for re-cross above as a leadership reclaim.
Historical results
Forward 1M SPY Returns by Regime
| Regime | Days | Avg 1M Fwd | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ/SPY Above 200D MA | 3730 | 1.07 | 68 |
| QQQ/SPY Below 200D MA | 1529 | 0.85 | 67.10 |