QQQ/SPY Leadership
QQQ/SPY just crossed below 200D MA — tech leadership lost. Median 1 month forward: +1.3%. In bullish normal trend regime: 68% win rate over 25 events.
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QQQ:SPY ratio vs 200D MA — tech-leadership barometer.
- 103 signals since 2000-01-01.
- QQQ/SPY just crossed below 200D MA — tech leadership lost. Median 1 month forward: +1.3%. In bullish normal trend regime: 68% win rate over 25 events.
Status
Lagging
Streak
1d
Ratio
0.9296
200D MA
0.9339
% from MA
-0.46%
4W Change
-4.29%
As of
2026-10-29
When to run this study
Run daily as a regime barometer. The QQQ:SPY ratio above its 200-day MA signals tech leadership — historically a risk-on tape. Sustained breaks below mark defensive rotation; watch for re-cross above as a leadership reclaim.
Historical results
Forward 1M SPY Returns by Regime
| Regime | Days | Avg 1M Fwd | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ/SPY Above 200D MA | 4220 | 1.08 | 67.80 |
| QQQ/SPY Below 200D MA | 2328 | 0.33 | 60.30 |