Presidential Cycle
Current: Trump 2 (Republican) started 2025-01-20
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SPX performance aligned to presidential terms since 1933 — year-of-term seasonality, drawdowns, and party comparisons.
- 27 presidential terms since 1933
- Current: Trump 2 (Republican) started 2025-01-20
- Current term return: +25.4%, max DD: -18.9%
Terms Analyzed
27
Current Return
+25.4%
Current Max DD
-18.9%
When to run this study
Run monthly or quarterly to review historical patterns. No market timing signals.
Historical results
Party Summary — Completed Terms Only
| Party | N | D+30 | D+60 | D+100 | D+180 | Yr1 % | Yr2 % | Yr3 % | Yr4 % | Term Total % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 15 terms | 1.42 | 1.59 | 4.34 | 7.91 | 14.66 | 5.13 | 11.18 | 13.60 | 30.49 |
| Republican | 11 terms | -2.05 | 0.15 | 0.88 | -0.68 | -1.76 | 13.40 | 12.48 | 4.92 | 30.13 |