Breadth Oscillator Extremes
Median 1M return: +1.6%, 67% win rate.
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McClellan-style oscillator over BREADTH_BASKET — oversold = contrarian buy.
- 332 signals since 2000-01-01.
- Median 1M return: +1.6%, 67% win rate.
- NYMO at 0.7
Current NYMO
-10.3
as of 2026-07-20
Oversold Events
332
since 2000-01-01
Oversold Threshold
-7
watch: -5
Avg 1M Return
+0.8%
67% win rate
When to run this study
Run daily, especially useful during market selloffs. When the breadth oscillator drops below -70, broad selling exhaustion has been reached across our universe — historically a reliable contrarian buy signal for SPY, particularly when below the 200D MA. Also watch readings above +70 as stretched breadth. Best used alongside VIX spike data and AAII sentiment for full regime context.
Historical results
Historical NYMO Oversold Events (< -7)
| Date | NYMO | VIX | SPY Entry | 200D Regime | NYMO Bucket | 1W | 2W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | -8.94 | 18.40 | 739.06 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -0.64 | 0.77 | ||
| 2026-06-03 | -9.01 | 16.10 | 752.30 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -3.82 | -1.76 | -0.14 | |
| 2026-04-29 | -12.24 | 18.80 | 709.75 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 3.13 | 4.32 | 6.31 | |
| 2026-03-26 | -7.18 | 27.40 | 643.43 | Below 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 1.66 | 5.33 | 10.86 | 13.30 |
| 2026-03-05 | -12.20 | 23.80 | 677.71 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -2.24 | -3.16 | -3.02 | 11.43 |
| 2026-01-20 | -12.24 | 20.10 | 674 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 2.64 | 1.76 | 1.02 | 4.19 |
| 2025-12-31 | -24.62 | 14.90 | 678.32 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 1.11 | 1.51 | 1.98 | -3.56 |
| 2025-11-14 | -8.83 | 19.80 | 666.41 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -1.92 | 1.24 | 1.03 | 2.44 |
| 2025-10-29 | -14.96 | 16.90 | 681.74 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -1.43 | -0.58 | -0.58 | 0.96 |
| 2025-10-09 | -13.49 | 16.40 | 665.65 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -1.57 | 0.09 | -0.03 | 3.72 |
| 2025-09-24 | -9.34 | 16.20 | 655.67 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 1.11 | 1.82 | 1.61 | 4.37 |
| 2025-09-12 | -8.41 | 14.80 | 650.21 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 1.24 | 0.95 | 1.14 | 5.12 |
| 2025-09-02 | -13.75 | 17.20 | 633.25 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 1.57 | 3.08 | 4.69 | 6.54 |
| 2025-08-18 | -7.14 | 15 | 636.25 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -0.13 | -0.47 | 2.47 | 4.74 |
| 2025-07-30 | -15.67 | 15.50 | 627.51 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -0.26 | 1.64 | 2.28 | 8.59 |
Showing 15 of 332 rows — see the live version for all.