Breadth Oscillator Extremes
Median 1M return: +1.7%, 67% win rate.
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McClellan-style oscillator over BREADTH_BASKET — oversold = contrarian buy.
- 336 signals since 2000-01-01.
- Median 1M return: +1.7%, 67% win rate.
- NYMO at 22.3 — extreme overbought breadth, may stall near-term. Median 1 month forward: +1.6%. Mean-reversion risk — trim or hedge into strength.
Current NYMO
24.1
as of 2026-10-29
Oversold Events
336
since 2000-01-01
Oversold Threshold
-7
watch: -5
Avg 1M Return
+0.9%
67% win rate
When to run this study
Run daily, especially useful during market selloffs. When the breadth oscillator drops below -70, broad selling exhaustion has been reached across our universe — historically a reliable contrarian buy signal for SPY, particularly when below the 200D MA. Also watch readings above +70 as stretched breadth. Best used alongside VIX spike data and AAII sentiment for full regime context.
Historical results
Historical NYMO Oversold Events (< -7)
| Date | NYMO | VIX | SPY Entry | 200D Regime | NYMO Bucket | 1W | 2W | 1M | 3M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | -12.35 | 14.50 | 769.19 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 0.27 | -0.88 | -0.47 | |
| 2026-08-17 | -7.10 | 15.20 | 770.76 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -1.19 | -0.73 | -2.41 | |
| 2026-07-20 | -10.63 | 18.60 | 740.25 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -0.40 | 2.10 | 3.42 | 3.11 |
| 2026-06-17 | -8.93 | 18.40 | 737.23 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -0.64 | 0.77 | 0.41 | 3.19 |
| 2026-06-03 | -8.88 | 16.10 | 750.44 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -3.82 | -1.76 | -0.14 | 1.71 |
| 2026-04-29 | -12.10 | 18.80 | 707.99 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 3.13 | 4.32 | 6.31 | 4.50 |
| 2026-03-26 | -7.03 | 27.40 | 641.84 | Below 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 1.66 | 5.33 | 10.86 | 13.30 |
| 2026-03-05 | -12.72 | 23.80 | 676.03 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -2.24 | -3.16 | -3.02 | 11.43 |
| 2026-01-20 | -12.14 | 20.10 | 672.33 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 2.64 | 1.76 | 1.02 | 4.19 |
| 2025-12-31 | -24.88 | 14.90 | 676.64 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 1.11 | 1.51 | 1.98 | -3.56 |
| 2025-11-14 | -9.28 | 19.80 | 664.76 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -1.92 | 1.24 | 1.03 | 2.44 |
| 2025-10-29 | -14.73 | 16.90 | 680.05 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -1.43 | -0.58 | -0.58 | 0.96 |
| 2025-10-09 | -13.37 | 16.40 | 664 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | -1.57 | 0.09 | -0.03 | 3.72 |
| 2025-09-24 | -9.35 | 16.20 | 654.04 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 1.11 | 1.82 | 1.61 | 4.37 |
| 2025-09-12 | -8.21 | 14.80 | 648.59 | Above 200D MA | Mildly Negative (-40 to 0) | 1.24 | 0.95 | 1.14 | 5.12 |
Showing 15 of 336 rows — see the live version for all.