New High After a Consolidation
144 new highs after a consolidation across 16 tickers (99 with overlap removed); next month higher 70% vs 61% any day.
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An index or sector fund closes at an all-time high after three to twelve months (63 to 252 sessions) below its previous record, without ever falling 15% from it: the market rested, did not break, then moved on. Run across 16 indexes and sector funds from their longest history, with events thinned to one per 90 days per ticker. Every forward return is printed beside the any-day base rate for the same ticker and horizon, small counts are flagged, and the pooled total is shown both raw and with overlapping events removed, because breakouts across related tickers are not independent.
- 144 signals since 1928-01-01.
- 144 new highs after a consolidation across 16 tickers (99 with overlap removed); next month higher 70% vs 61% any day.
When to run this study
Run whenever a stock index or sector fund pushes to a record high after spending three to twelve months below its old one. The study checks 16 indexes and sector funds: a new record close counts if it came 63 to 252 trading sessions after the previous record and the fund never fell 15% from that record in between. Read the any-day base rate beside every number, and remember that several tickers breaking out together is one market move, not several independent tests.
Historical results
One month later, by ticker (against any day for the same ticker)
| Ticker | Data from | Events | Sample | 1M positive | 1M median | Any day: positive | Any day: median | Edge (pts) | Last event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 1928 | 18 | 55.60 | 1.30 | 60.30 | 1 | -4.70 | 2019-10-28 | |
| Nasdaq Composite | 1971 | 14 | 100 | 2.50 | 61.50 | 1.50 | 38.50 | 2026-09-21 | |
| Nasdaq 100 | 1985 | 8 | n<10 | 71.40 | 4 | 62.90 | 1.70 | 8.50 | 2026-09-22 |
| Dow Jones | 1992 | 9 | n<10 | 77.80 | 1 | 63.40 | 1.20 | 14.30 | 2026-05-21 |
| Russell 2000 | 1987 | 12 | 50 | 0.40 | 60.60 | 1.30 | -10.60 | 2021-11-02 | |
| QQQ | 1999 | 5 | n<10 | 100 | 4.30 | 62.90 | 1.60 | 37.10 | 2026-09-22 |
| XLK | 1998 | 4 | n<10 | 100 | 5.40 | 61.60 | 1.60 | 38.40 | 2023-11-14 |
| SMH | 2000 | 1 | n<10 | 100 | 7.60 | 58.80 | 1.60 | 41.20 | 2023-11-14 |
| XLF | 1998 | 6 | n<10 | 83.30 | 2.60 | 59.10 | 1.10 | 24.30 | 2026-07-06 |
| XLE | 1998 | 7 | n<10 | 71.40 | 2.30 | 57.40 | 1.20 | 14 | 2026-08-17 |
| XLV | 1998 | 9 | n<10 | 55.60 | 1 | 61.20 | 1.10 | -5.60 | 2026-06-26 |
| XLY | 1998 | 8 | n<10 | 75 | 1.90 | 61.50 | 1.30 | 13.50 | 2019-12-17 |
| XLP | 1998 | 15 | 73.30 | 1.30 | 61.70 | 0.90 | 11.70 | 2026-01-14 | |
| XLI | 1998 | 10 | 50 | 0.10 | 60.80 | 1.20 | -10.80 | 2026-06-15 | |
| XLU | 1998 | 10 | 70 | 1 | 61.20 | 1.10 | 8.80 | 2026-02-13 |
Showing 15 of 16 rows — see the live version for all.