Near-ATH Decline
Currently: 2 consecutive down weeks, 17 days from ATH
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N consecutive down weeks within X days of an all-time high. Identifies fresh weakness off the highs with elevated mean-reversion odds.
- NO SIGNAL: Need 4 consecutive down weeks within 40 days of ATH
- Currently: 2 consecutive down weeks, 17 days from ATH
- Regime: Above 200D MA (MA200: $725.63)
- -1.23% from all-time high
- 8 historical signals found — 100% win rate at 3M (avg +10.3%)
Signals Found
8
since 1993-01-01
3M Avg
+3.4%
88% win rate
6M Avg
+4.3%
75% win rate
200D MA Status
Above 200D MA
$725.63
Above MA
4
4 below
When to run this study
Best run after 3-4 consecutive down weeks following a recent all-time high. Most relevant during early-stage corrections — helps frame whether the pullback is a normal dip or the start of a larger decline based on 200D MA regime.
Historical results
All Qualifying Events (8 total)
| Date | Close | ATH | Days from ATH | % from ATH | Regime | 1W Ret% | 2W Ret% | 1M Ret% | 3M Ret% | 6M Ret% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 645.30 | 688.69 | 37 | -6.30 | Below MA | 1.05 | 0.71 | -0.54 | 4.83 | 9.73 |
| 2025-03-14 | 551.97 | 597.95 | 17 | -7.69 | Below MA | 0.77 | -0.32 | 0.48 | 0.61 | -6.04 |
| 2020-09-25 | 303.19 | 322.05 | 16 | -5.86 | Above MA | 1.66 | 1.11 | 2.53 | 5.84 | 0.45 |
| 2019-08-23 | 256.55 | 272.01 | 20 | -5.68 | Above MA | 1.11 | 0.71 | 2.71 | 5.77 | 3.42 |
| 2019-05-31 | 246.72 | 263.54 | 19 | -6.38 | Below MA | -0.25 | 1.91 | 3.46 | 6.46 | 8.49 |
| 2014-10-17 | 154.44 | 164.46 | 21 | -6.09 | Below MA | 0.97 | 2.97 | 3.43 | 7.36 | 9.97 |
| 1998-08-14 | 65.18 | 72.82 | 19 | -10.49 | Above MA | 2.12 | 4 | 3.12 | -6.39 | -2.72 |
| 1997-04-04 | 45.77 | 48.81 | 32 | -6.22 | Above MA | 0.39 | 1.11 | -0.08 | 2.60 | 10.75 |