Monthly Seasonal Leaders
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For each calendar month, the universe top 15 stocks ranked by historical 1M win rate (positivity rate) over their full available history (>= 15 years). Includes follow-on 3M / 6M / 12M returns so you can tell a one-month seasonal pop from the leading edge of a sustained rally.
When to run this study
Run at the start of each month (or last week of the prior month) to see the universe top 15 historical leaders for the upcoming calendar month, ranked by positivity rate (% of years the stock was up in that month) across >= 15 years of history. Use the follow-on 3M / 6M / 12M columns to tell a one-month pop from a sustained run. The signal sidecar feeds the current month's top-15 into the folio gate with per-ticker WR.
Historical results
This month: July — Top 15 historical leaders
| Ticker | Name | Sector | N years | Win rate | Avg return | Median return | Fwd 3M | Fwd 6M | Fwd 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | MPC | Energy | 16 | 93.80 | 6.22 | 4.90 | 3.98 | 12.83 | 28.39 |
| AAPL | Apple | Tech | 22 | 90.90 | 7.93 | 7.07 | 9.73 | 11.72 | 34.02 |
| ARE | ARE | Real Estate | 22 | 90.90 | 4.84 | 5.96 | -2.22 | 2.60 | 5.65 |
| KKR | KKR | Financials | 16 | 87.50 | 7.75 | 7.02 | -1.63 | 9.66 | 23.46 |
| AMGN | AMGN | Health Care | 22 | 86.40 | 7.93 | 6.05 | 1.27 | 3.06 | 11.38 |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher | Health | 22 | 86.40 | 5.81 | 7.37 | 1.12 | 7.66 | 17.09 |
| GS | Goldman Sachs | Finance | 22 | 86.40 | 4.84 | 5.34 | 2.96 | 9.75 | 16.99 |
| JPM | JPMorgan | Finance | 22 | 86.40 | 4.62 | 3.63 | 3.13 | 9.28 | 16.73 |
| RMD | RMD | Health Care | 22 | 86.40 | 4.33 | 3.49 | 0.48 | 6.31 | 16.04 |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | Finance | 22 | 86.40 | 4.27 | 3.98 | 0.65 | 10.14 | 16.02 |
| NNN | NNN | Real Estate | 22 | 86.40 | 4.22 | 3.58 | 1.23 | 4.91 | 11.40 |
| TJX | TJX | Consumer Discretionary | 22 | 86.40 | 3.40 | 2.80 | 4.24 | 10.23 | 19.77 |
| HPQ | HPQ | Technology | 22 | 86.40 | 3.21 | 2.46 | -1.67 | 2.75 | 9.98 |
| PEP | PEP | Consumer Staples | 22 | 86.40 | 2.38 | 3.08 | 1.37 | 1.57 | 7.91 |
| CF | CF | Materials | 21 | 85.70 | 6.51 | 6.10 | 6.51 | 18.87 | 38.56 |