Midterm-Year Negative Q1
2026 is a midterm year with a negative Q1 (-4.6%) — historically June was down 91% of the time (median -2.0%); a seasonal-caution flag
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In US midterm election years where the S&P 500 closed Q1 negative, June and the summer have historically been weak — June finished down in all but one such case (2018) since 1950. A seasonal-caution flag, the bearish counterweight to the mid-summer-rally seasonals.
- 11 signals since 1950-01-01.
- 2026 is a midterm year with a negative Q1 (-4.6%) — historically June was down 91% of the time (median -2.0%); a seasonal-caution flag
2026 Midterm Q1
-4.6%
down Q1 — caution live
June Win Rate
9%
n=11
June Median
-2.0%
Rest-of-Year Median
-5.1%
36% win
When to run this study
Run in a midterm election year (year mod 4 == 2). When the S&P 500 closed Q1 negative in such a year, June and the summer have historically been weak (June down in all but one case since 1950) — a caution flag, the bearish counterweight to the bullish mid-summer-rally seasonals.
Historical results
Midterm Years with a Negative Q1 (12)
| Year | Q1 % | Apr % | May % | Jun % | RoY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.63 | 10.42 | 5.15 | -1.06 | |
| 2022 | -4.95 | -8.80 | 0.01 | -8.39 | -15.25 |
| 2018 | -1.22 | 0.27 | 2.16 | 0.48 | -5.07 |
| 2002 | -0.06 | -6.14 | -0.91 | -7.25 | -23.32 |
| 1994 | -4.43 | 1.15 | 1.24 | -2.68 | 3.03 |
| 1990 | -3.81 | -2.69 | 9.20 | -0.89 | -2.86 |
| 1982 | -8.64 | 4 | -3.92 | -2.03 | 25.62 |
| 1978 | -6.19 | 8.54 | 0.42 | -1.76 | 7.73 |
| 1974 | -3.66 | -3.91 | -3.36 | -1.47 | -27.05 |
| 1970 | -2.64 | -9.05 | -6.10 | -5 | 2.81 |
| 1966 | -3.46 | 2.05 | -5.41 | -1.61 | -9.97 |
| 1962 | -2.80 | -6.20 | -8.60 | -8.18 | -9.27 |