SteadyTapeQuantitative Market Research

Mid-Year Rally

Mid-year rally window 59-18 record, +1.6% median (after)

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The last 3 trading days of June through the 9th trading day of July — historically the strongest short-horizon window of the year for US equities (S&P 500 ~+1.5% median / ~74% since 1950; Nasdaq 100 hotter at ~+3.1% / ~75%). A trading-day-offset window (not fixed calendar dates).

Window
last 3 of June → July day 9
window closed
S&P Record
59-18
n=77
S&P Median
+1.6%
77% win
Nasdaq 100 Median
+2.2%
86% win, n=22

When to run this study

Run in late June, just as the window opens. The last 3 trading days of June through the 9th trading day of July is historically the strongest short-horizon window of the year for US equities (S&P ~+1.5% median / ~74%; Nasdaq 100 hotter).

Historical results

Window Stats by Index

IndexNWin%MedianWorstBest
S&P 5007776.601.62-6.859.94
Nasdaq 1002286.402.20-4.958.53