May+Jun Both Green Barometer
May+June Both Green Barometer (provisional): May +4.97%, June-to-date -0.57%. Median RoY forward: +10.9%.
▶ View the live, interactive version with full charts →
When both May and June close positive, rest-of-year from end of June has been bullish 83% of the time historically (n=18, WR holdout 89% -- best out-of-sample of the conjunction set). Mid-year floor reference.
- 33 signals since 1993-01-29.
- May+June Both Green Barometer (provisional): May +4.97%, June-to-date -0.57%. Median RoY forward: +10.9%.
May
+4.97%
June
-0.57%
Both Green
Pending
When to run this study
Run after May closes and again after June closes. The signal finalizes on the last trading day of June when both May and June are positive -- the strongest out-of-sample holdout stats (88.9% WR) of any conjunction barometer. Mid-year floor reference.
Historical results
May+June Both-Green Years -- Rest-of-Year SPY Returns
| Year | May | June | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.54 | 4.55 | 11 |
| 2024 | 5.40 | 3.44 | 8.39 |
| 2023 | 0.56 | 5.48 | 8.04 |
| 2021 | 0.44 | 2.33 | 11.70 |
| 2020 | 7.61 | 1.36 | 22.25 |
| 2016 | 0.90 | 0.14 | 7.88 |
| 2014 | 2.31 | 1.95 | 6.09 |
| 2004 | 0.63 | 1.99 | 6.79 |
| 2003 | 5.50 | 0.65 | 14.96 |
| 1997 | 6.45 | 4.57 | 10.75 |
| 1996 | 2.05 | 0.60 | 11.14 |
| 1995 | 4.25 | 2.29 | 14.32 |