200-Day Test

Next month higher 71% of the time against a 62% base rate; three months 69% vs 67%; six months 69% vs 71%.

▶  View the live, interactive version with full charts →

The S&P 500's first close within 0.5% of its 200-day average, or below it, after 100 or more consecutive closes above — the moment everyone calls the 200-day "support". Forty-seven of them since 1950. The next month has been higher 72% of the time against a 62% base rate, three months 70% against 67%, six months 70% against 71%: a modest edge that fades with the horizon. The support part is weaker than the slogan — 40 of the 47 closed below the line within a week and 19 went 3% or more under it within a month — so the typical touch is a dip that gets bought later, not a line that holds on contact. Every figure sits next to the any-day base rate; the held/broke and 50-day-trend splits are small and marked so.

• 46 first touches of the 200-day after 100+ sessions above it since 1950 — about one every 1.7 years.
• Next month higher 71% of the time against a 62% base rate; three months 69% vs 67%; six months 69% vs 71%.
• 39 of 46 closed below the 200-day within a week; 18 went 3%+ under it within a month; the touch marked the low (within 2%) 33% of the time; median 88 sessions to a new 52-week high.
• S&P 500 closed 0.42% above the 200-day on 2026-11-05 after 147 consecutive closes above it — the first test of the line since the run began. 6 sessions on, it is +3.02% from the 200-day (held so far).

When to run this study

Historical results