June New-High Barometer
2026: new 12-month high in the first half of June (first on 2026-06-01) — rest-of-year bias bullish. Median RoY forward: +8.5%. Higher highs historically still ahead (annual high rarely in June). Dips toward the mid-June level are buyable.
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When the S&P 500 sets a new 12-month high in the first half of June, the rest of the year has been bullish ~75% of the time (+8.1% median since 1950) and the annual high almost always still lies ahead — usually in Q4.
- 16 signals since 1950-01-01.
- 2026: new 12-month high in the first half of June (first on 2026-06-01) — rest-of-year bias bullish. Median RoY forward: +8.5%. Higher highs historically still ahead (annual high rarely in June). Dips toward the mid-June level are buyable.
When to run this study
Run from early June onward. When the S&P 500 prints a new 12-month high in the first half of June, history (since 1950) says the rest of the year has been bullish ~75% of the time (+8.1% median) and the annual high almost always still lies ahead, usually in Q4. A bullish floor reference for H2.
Historical results
Forward S&P returns from the June-15 anchor (qualifying years)
| Window | N | Win% | Median | Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 16 | 87.50 | 2.77 | 2.50 |
| 3M | 16 | 75 | 3.02 | 2.79 |
| 6M | 16 | 75 | 8.19 | 5.28 |
| RoY | 16 | 75 | 8.46 | 6.23 |