July After Strong Spring, Weak June
2026: green April & May (+10.4% / +5.1%) then red June (-1.1%) — July has rebounded 73% of the time historically. Median Jul forward: +3.1%. Strong-spring / weak-June setup — July has historically rebounded.
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When the S&P 500 gained in both April and May but fell in June, the following July has historically rebounded — ~75% positive, ~+2.6% median since 1950. The conditional cousin of the both-green barometers, framing July as the bullish-defense rebound month.
- 15 signals since 1950-01-01.
- 2026: green April & May (+10.4% / +5.1%) then red June (-1.1%) — July has rebounded 73% of the time historically. Median Jul forward: +3.1%. Strong-spring / weak-June setup — July has historically rebounded.
2026 Apr/May/Jun
+10.4 / +5.1 / -1.1%
setup confirmed
July Win Rate
73%
n=15
July Median
+3.1%
July Worst
-3.2%
best +8.8%
When to run this study
Run at the end of June. When the S&P 500 gained in both April and May but fell in June, the following July has historically rebounded (~75% positive, ~+2.6% median since 1950). A bullish-defense seasonal for July.
Historical results
Qualifying Years — green Apr & May, red June (15)
| Year | Apr % | May % | Jun % | Jul % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0.85 | 1.05 | -2.10 | 1.97 |
| 2013 | 1.81 | 2.08 | -1.50 | 4.95 |
| 2008 | 4.75 | 1.07 | -8.60 | -0.99 |
| 2007 | 4.33 | 3.25 | -1.78 | -3.20 |
| 2001 | 7.68 | 0.51 | -2.50 | -1.07 |
| 1994 | 1.15 | 1.24 | -2.68 | 3.15 |
| 1992 | 2.79 | 0.10 | -1.74 | 3.94 |
| 1991 | 0.03 | 3.86 | -4.79 | 4.49 |
| 1989 | 5.01 | 3.51 | -0.79 | 8.84 |
| 1978 | 8.54 | 0.42 | -1.76 | 5.39 |
| 1972 | 0.44 | 1.73 | -2.18 | 0.23 |
| 1963 | 4.85 | 1.43 | -2.02 | -0.35 |
| 1961 | 0.38 | 1.91 | -2.88 | 3.28 |
| 1959 | 3.88 | 1.89 | -0.36 | 3.49 |
| 1957 | 3.70 | 3.69 | -0.13 | 1.14 |