January Barometer / Trifecta
January positive (+1.29%) but trifecta incomplete. Median FY forward: +14.2%. Positive January alone is a weaker but still bullish historical signal.
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Santa Claus Rally + First Five Days + full Jan return predict full-year direction.
- 32 signals since 1950-01-01.
- January positive (+1.29%) but trifecta incomplete. Median FY forward: +14.2%. Positive January alone is a weaker but still bullish historical signal.
Santa Claus Rally
-0.39%
First Five Days
+0.93%
Full January
+1.29%
Trifecta
NO
When to run this study
Run any time. The three readings complete sequentially in early January: Santa Claus Rally (by ~Jan 3), First Five Days (by ~Jan 8), Full January (by ~Jan 31). A "Trifecta" (all three positive) has historically been a strong full-year tailwind. Once finalized, the signal fires as an active 12-month forward-return bet.
Historical results
Trifecta Years — Full-Year and Rest-of-Year SPY Returns
| Year | Santa | FFD | Jan | Feb-Dec | FY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.22 | 1.85 | 6.74 | 18.71 | 26.71 |
| 2021 | 0.63 | 3.38 | 0.35 | 30.05 | 30.51 |
| 2019 | 4.21 | 2.63 | 7.89 | 21.50 | 31.09 |
| 2018 | 1.11 | 1.92 | 4.89 | -9.66 | -5.25 |
| 2017 | 0.39 | 0.54 | 1.02 | 19.57 | 20.78 |
| 2012 | 1.04 | 0.41 | 3 | 10.85 | 14.17 |
| 2011 | 1.06 | 0.07 | 1.28 | -0.43 | 0.85 |
| 2006 | 0.43 | 1.63 | 0.63 | 13.13 | 13.84 |
| 2004 | 2.57 | 1.93 | 2.02 | 8.55 | 10.75 |
| 2001 | 3.10 | 1.07 | 6.37 | -15.51 | -10.13 |
| 1999 | 1.43 | 3.84 | 3.76 | 16.29 | 20.66 |