Jan+Jun Both Green Barometer
January+June barometer (2026): not both green (January +1.29%, June -1.30%) -- rest-of-year tailwind not confirmed. Median RoY forward: +8.4%.
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When both January and June close positive, rest-of-year from end of June has been bullish 82% of the time historically (n=22, WR holdout 86%). Wider-window confirmation than Jan+Feb -- lower noise floor anchor for H2.
- 21 signals since 2005-01-03.
- January+June barometer (2026): not both green (January +1.29%, June -1.30%) -- rest-of-year tailwind not confirmed. Median RoY forward: +8.4%.
January
+1.29%
June
-1.30%
Both Green
Pending
When to run this study
Run after January closes and again after June closes. The signal finalizes on the last trading day of June when both January and June are positive -- a wider-window conjunction with 85.7% out-of-sample holdout WR. Floor reference for H2.
Historical results
January+June Both-Green Years -- Rest-of-Year SPY Returns
| Year | January | June | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.94 | 4.55 | 11 |
| 2024 | 2.16 | 3.44 | 8.39 |
| 2023 | 6.74 | 5.48 | 8.04 |
| 2021 | 0.35 | 2.33 | 11.70 |
| 2019 | 7.89 | 7.23 | 10.90 |
| 2012 | 3 | 6.75 | 5.94 |
| 2011 | 1.28 | 0.57 | -3.80 |