Jan+Feb Both Green Barometer
January+February barometer (2026): not both green (January +1.29%, February -1.35%) -- rest-of-year tailwind not confirmed. Median RoY forward: +17.7%.
▶ View the live, interactive version with full charts →
When both January and February close positive, rest-of-year from end of February has been bullish 95% of the time historically (n=21, WR holdout 83%). The strongest first-confirmation seasonal in the SPX record. Floor reference through year-end.
- 32 signals since 1993-01-29.
- January+February barometer (2026): not both green (January +1.29%, February -1.35%) -- rest-of-year tailwind not confirmed. Median RoY forward: +17.7%.
January
+1.29%
February
-1.35%
Both Green
NO
When to run this study
Run after January closes and again after February closes. The signal finalizes on the last trading day of February when both January and February are positive -- the strongest first-confirmation seasonal pattern in the SPX historical record. Floor reference for the rest of the year.
Historical results
January+February Both-Green Years -- Rest-of-Year SPY Returns
| Year | January | February | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2.16 | 3.86 | 16.83 |
| 2021 | 0.35 | 1.10 | 26.54 |
| 2019 | 7.89 | 3.19 | 17.68 |
| 2017 | 1.02 | 3.89 | 15.05 |
| 2013 | 2.49 | 0.24 | 24.28 |
| 2012 | 3 | 3.43 | 6.24 |
| 2011 | 1.28 | 1.84 | -3.77 |
| 2004 | 2.02 | 0.92 | 7.10 |
| 1998 | 0.77 | 5.19 | 18.82 |
| 1997 | 5.91 | 0.66 | 24.52 |
| 1995 | 2.87 | 4.12 | 28.32 |