January ATH-Close Barometer
January 2026 closed at a fresh ATH (close $690.09) -- historically strong follow-through over 3M/6M/RoY horizons. Median 6 months forward: +4.9%. Historical edge after January ATH close: 3M median +5.0% WR 75% (n=12); 6M median +4.9% WR 92% (n=12); RoY median +17.3% WR 83% (n=12). Use the close as a floor reference.
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When January closes at a fresh all-time high, historical RoY returns are 76.5% positive (n=17, holdout WR 80%). 6M edge also positive (75% holdout). Earlier-in-year sister to the April ATH-close barometer.
- 33 signals since 1993-01-29.
- January 2026 closed at a fresh ATH (close $690.09) -- historically strong follow-through over 3M/6M/RoY horizons. Median 6 months forward: +4.9%. Historical edge after January ATH close: 3M median +5.0% WR 75% (n=12); 6M median +4.9% WR 92% (n=12); RoY median +17.3% WR 83% (n=12). Use the close as a floor reference.
When to run this study
Run after January closes. The signal finalizes on the last trading day of January when SPX records a fresh all-time-high month-end close. RoY 76.5% train / 80.0% holdout WR. Use the close as a floor reference through year-end.
Historical results
January ATH-Close Years -- All Horizons
| Year | Sig Date | Close | 3M | 6M | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-31 | 593.21 | -6.08 | 4.97 | 14.64 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-31 | 469.95 | 4.91 | 11.06 | 22.93 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-31 | 248.12 | -6.47 | 1.03 | -9.66 |
| 2017 | 2017-01-31 | 196.45 | 5.27 | 9.76 | 19.57 |
| 2013 | 2013-01-31 | 119.19 | 8.27 | 15.31 | 25.86 |
| 2007 | 2007-01-31 | 100.79 | 5.01 | 3.53 | 3.59 |
| 1999 | 1999-01-29 | 79.34 | 6.55 | 4.80 | 16.29 |
| 1998 | 1998-01-30 | 60.32 | 14.57 | 13.91 | 27.06 |
| 1997 | 1997-01-31 | 47.38 | 6.74 | 22.34 | 25.71 |
| 1996 | 1996-01-31 | 37.72 | 1.60 | 3.33 | 18.29 |
| 1994 | 1994-01-31 | 27.20 | -5.62 | -2.99 | -2.99 |
| 1993 | 1993-01-29 | 24.18 | 1.33 | 3.56 | 8.71 |