January ATH-Close Barometer
January 2026 closed at a fresh ATH (close $688.31) -- historically strong follow-through over 3M/6M/RoY horizons. Median 6 months forward: +5.5%. Historical edge after January ATH close: 3M median +4.0% WR 62% (n=8); 6M median +5.5% WR 100% (n=8); RoY median +13.9% WR 88% (n=8). Use the close as a floor reference.
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When January closes at a fresh all-time high, historical RoY returns are 76.5% positive (n=17, holdout WR 80%). 6M edge also positive (75% holdout). Earlier-in-year sister to the April ATH-close barometer.
- 21 signals since 2005-01-03.
- January 2026 closed at a fresh ATH (close $688.31) -- historically strong follow-through over 3M/6M/RoY horizons. Median 6 months forward: +5.5%. Historical edge after January ATH close: 3M median +4.0% WR 62% (n=8); 6M median +5.5% WR 100% (n=8); RoY median +13.9% WR 88% (n=8). Use the close as a floor reference.
When to run this study
Run after January closes. The signal finalizes on the last trading day of January when SPX records a fresh all-time-high month-end close. RoY 76.5% train / 80.0% holdout WR. Use the close as a floor reference through year-end.
Historical results
January ATH-Close Years -- All Horizons
| Year | Sig Date | Close | 3M | 6M | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-31 | 591.69 | -6.08 | 4.97 | 14.64 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-31 | 468.74 | 4.91 | 11.06 | 22.93 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-31 | 247.48 | -6.47 | 1.03 | -9.66 |
| 2017 | 2017-01-31 | 195.94 | 5.27 | 9.76 | 19.57 |
| 2013 | 2013-01-31 | 118.88 | 8.28 | 15.31 | 25.86 |
| 2007 | 2007-01-31 | 100.53 | 5.01 | 3.53 | 3.59 |
| 2006 | 2006-01-31 | 87.55 | 3.07 | 1.30 | 13.13 |
| 2005 | 2005-01-31 | 79.73 | -0.93 | 6.11 | 7.23 |