HL Logic Index
Median 1M return: +13.4%, 71% win rate.
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New-highs / new-lows Logic Index + spread - breadth incoherence + oversold breadth events.
- 7 signals since 2005-01-01.
- Median 1M return: +13.4%, 71% win rate.
- Logic Index elevated at 5.0% — market breadth incoherent, caution. Median 1 month forward: +13.4%. Wait for confirmation before sizing in.
Logic Index
5.0%
threshold 4%
NH-NL Spread
+6.6%
NH% − NL%
Logic Signals
56
since 2005-01-01
Oversold Signals
7
since 2005-01-01
When to run this study
Run at any time as a market health check. A rising Logic Index (both highs and lows elevated) is a classic warning sign — run before adding risk. An extreme NH-NL spread oversold reading is often a tactical buy setup.
Historical results
Breadth Oversold Signal — Forward Returns (N=7)
| Period | N | Win% | Avg% | Median% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 7 | 71.40 | 5.65 | 6.76 |
| 2W | 7 | 71.40 | 7.09 | 9.73 |
| 1M | 7 | 71.40 | 9.45 | 13.42 |
| 3M | 7 | 71.40 | 11.61 | 7.56 |
| 6M | 7 | 71.40 | 19.54 | 22.86 |