Google Trends Sentiment
Median 1M return: +4.7%, 75% win rate.
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Retail sentiment from Google Trends search-volume composites for fear and greed terms.
- 55 signals since 2004-01-01.
- Median 1M return: +4.7%, 75% win rate.
- Greed elevated: composite greed z-score +2.04 — elevated risk of near-term mean reversion. Median 3 months forward: +5.0%. Crowded long — trim into strength.
Fear Index (z)
+0.34
Threshold: >1.5
Greed Index (z)
+2.04
Threshold: >1.5
Net Sentiment
+1.69
Greed − Fear
Fear Spike Events
12
since 2004
Greed Spike Events
43
since 2004
When to run this study
Run weekly or after significant market events. Most valuable when the market has made a sharp move and you want to gauge whether retail panic or euphoria is at an extreme. Fear spikes are historically contrarian buy signals; greed spikes signal elevated risk of near-term mean reversion.
Historical results
Fear Spike Episodes — SPY Forward Returns (12 signals)
| Signal Date | SPY Price | Top Term | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | 567.69 | "recession" (49) | -12 | 4.34 | 13.05 | 18.12 |
| 2024-08-01 | 522.01 | "recession" (28) | 1.38 | 12.58 | 13.44 | 21.04 |
| 2022-06-01 | 368.86 | "recession" (100) | 0.14 | 4.76 | 1.74 | 12.16 |
| 2022-04-01 | 423.52 | "recession" (41) | -8.09 | -12.78 | -18.26 | -7.03 |
| 2020-04-01 | 255.73 | "recession" (35) | 5.12 | 14.66 | 25.73 | 50.28 |
| 2020-02-01 | 303.59 | "recession" (17) | -10.46 | -11.45 | 1.75 | 18.89 |
| 2018-12-01 | 235.02 | "recession" (20) | -3.68 | 4.74 | 10.26 | 21.84 |
| 2018-02-01 | 230.16 | "market crash" (27) | 6.64 | 4.76 | 9.20 | 5.39 |
| 2016-11-01 | 185.76 | "market crash" (13) | 4.66 | 7.60 | 11.56 | 21.67 |
| 2016-01-01 | 162.22 | "market crash" (11) | -2.07 | 7.10 | 11.95 | 20.93 |
| 2015-08-01 | 173.82 | "market crash" (16) | -7.39 | 1.53 | -8.61 | 7.19 |
| 2008-09-01 | 90.94 | "recession" (36) | -29.41 | -29.01 | -38.81 | -14.67 |