First 100 Days Barometer
2026: +10.2% over the first 100 trading days (>= +8%). Median RoY forward: +14.5%. Strong-start year — rest-of-year bias bullish; dips toward the day-100 close are buyable.
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When SPY gains >=8% over the first 100 trading days of the year, the rest of the year has been positive ~88% of the time with a double-digit median.
- 5 signals since 1993-01-01.
- 2026: +10.2% over the first 100 trading days (>= +8%). Median RoY forward: +14.5%. Strong-start year — rest-of-year bias bullish; dips toward the day-100 close are buyable.
2026 First 100
+10.2%
Threshold
+8%
Qualified Years
5
since 1993
RoY Median
+14.5%
100% win
When to run this study
Finalizes around the 100th trading day of the year (late May). When SPY is up >=8% over the first 100 trading days, the rest of the year has been positive ~88% of the time with a double-digit median — a bullish floor reference for the back half of the year.
Historical results
Forward SPY returns from day 100 (qualified years)
| Window | N | Win% | Median | Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 5 | 80 | 3.32 | 2.28 |
| 3M | 5 | 100 | 6.50 | 4.75 |
| 6M | 5 | 100 | 10.76 | 11.47 |
| RoY | 5 | 100 | 14.47 | 14.37 |