Feb+Apr Both Green Barometer
February+April barometer (2026): not both green (February -1.35%, April +9.68%) -- rest-of-year tailwind not confirmed. Median RoY forward: +11.9%.
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When both February and April close positive, rest-of-year from end of April has been bullish 94% of the time historically (n=17, WR holdout 75%). Floor reference for dip-buys through year-end.
- 33 signals since 1993-01-29.
- February+April barometer (2026): not both green (February -1.35%, April +9.68%) -- rest-of-year tailwind not confirmed. Median RoY forward: +11.9%.
February
-1.35%
April
+9.68%
Both Green
Pending
When to run this study
Run after February closes and again after April closes. The signal finalizes on the last trading day of April when both February and April are positive -- historically a strong rest-of-year tailwind. Acts as a floor reference for dip-buys through year-end.
Historical results
February+April Both-Green Years -- Rest-of-Year SPY Returns
| Year | February | April | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1.10 | 4.17 | 14.96 |
| 2019 | 3.19 | 2.87 | 11.05 |
| 2017 | 3.89 | 1.17 | 13.77 |
| 2015 | 4.33 | 1.34 | -0.63 |
| 2014 | 6.96 | 0.03 | 10.79 |
| 2013 | 0.24 | 2.33 | 17.48 |
| 2011 | 1.84 | 2.46 | -6.49 |
| 2010 | 1.54 | 0.86 | 7.48 |
| 1998 | 5.19 | 0.47 | 11.86 |
| 1997 | 0.66 | 5.58 | 22.59 |
| 1995 | 4.12 | 2.71 | 21.25 |