EMA Support
Best touch threshold: 10.0% — holds 68% of the time
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Dynamic-support touches at the 50-EMA - hold-vs-breach forward returns by threshold band.
- 810 signals since 1993-01-01.
- Best touch threshold: 10.0% — holds 68% of the time
- Current price +7.4% from EMA
- Signal: active — Price within 8.0% of EMA — touch zone active. Median 1 week forward: +0.4%. Dip-buy zone — historically rewards 1–3 month patience.
- active
Best Threshold
10.0%
Hold Rate
68%
Current vs EMA
+7.4%
Touch Events
810
When to run this study
Run when price is approaching or recently touched a major moving average from above. Useful for gauging support probability at the 50-week EMA. Sweep the touch threshold to find the historically strongest approach zone. Switch to daily mode to assess shorter-term EMA levels.
Historical results
Threshold Sweep — Hold Rate & Forward Returns
| Touch Threshold | N | Held % | Breached % | Pending % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0% | 28 | 21.40 | 78.60 | 0 |
| 2.0% | 46 | 30.40 | 69.60 | 0 |
| 3.0% | 62 | 37.10 | 62.90 | 0 |
| 4.0% | 78 | 41 | 59 | 0 |
| 5.0% | 99 | 49.50 | 50.50 | 0 |
| 6.0% | 119 | 58 | 42 | 0 |
| 8.0% | 171 | 63.20 | 35.10 | 1.80 |
| 10.0% | 207 | 67.60 | 30.40 | 1.90 |