EMA Support
Best touch threshold: 10.0% — holds 68% of the time
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Dynamic-support touches at the 50-EMA - hold-vs-breach forward returns by threshold band.
- 1182 signals since 1993-01-01.
- Best touch threshold: 10.0% — holds 68% of the time
- Current price +6.9% from EMA
- Signal: active — Price within 8.0% of EMA — touch zone active. Median 1 week forward: +0.4%. Dip-buy zone — historically rewards 1–3 month patience.
- active
Best Threshold
10.0%
Hold Rate
68%
Current vs EMA
+6.9%
Touch Events
1182
When to run this study
Run when price is approaching or recently touched a major moving average from above. Useful for gauging support probability at the 50-week EMA. Sweep the touch threshold to find the historically strongest approach zone. Switch to daily mode to assess shorter-term EMA levels.
Historical results
Threshold Sweep — Hold Rate & Forward Returns
| Touch Threshold | N | Held % | Breached % | Pending % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0% | 43 | 25.60 | 74.40 | 0 |
| 2.0% | 64 | 31.20 | 68.80 | 0 |
| 3.0% | 95 | 40 | 60 | 0 |
| 4.0% | 117 | 47 | 53 | 0 |
| 5.0% | 149 | 53 | 47 | 0 |
| 6.0% | 177 | 59.30 | 40.10 | 0.60 |
| 8.0% | 243 | 64.20 | 35 | 0.80 |
| 10.0% | 294 | 68 | 31 | 1 |