Defensive Breadth
Defensive breadth at 50% — neutral risk posture
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% of defensive sector groups (staples, utilities, healthcare, REITs) beating SPY over a rolling 63-day window — a risk-on / risk-off regime gauge.
- 0 signals since 2005-01-01.
- Defensive breadth at 50% — neutral risk posture
Defensive Breadth
50%
10-80%
RS Spread
-0.8%
defensive − SPY 63d
Risk-On 1Y Med
+15.7%
89% win
As of
2026-10-29
When to run this study
Run daily. Gauges risk-on vs risk-off by how many defensive sector groups are beating SPY over the last 63 days. Below 10% = defensives broadly lagging (bullish/risk-on); above 80% = defensives leading (risk-off warning, the 2022 bear setup).
Historical results
Forward SPY returns by defensive-breadth band
| Defensive Breadth Band | N (days) | 1M Win% | 1M Med | 3M Win% | 3M Med | 6M Win% | 6M Med | 1Y Win% | 1Y Med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <10% | 1462 | 68.70 | 1.63 | 73.80 | 3.98 | 84.20 | 7.64 | 88.60 | 15.67 |
| 10-80% | 2748 | 68.90 | 1.48 | 75.90 | 3.94 | 77.40 | 7.40 | 83.30 | 14.54 |
| >80% | 1197 | 63.20 | 1.73 | 69.40 | 4.60 | 71 | 6.53 | 78.50 | 15.03 |