Cycle Composites
2026 is a midterm year, and midterm years have historically traced a weaker path than the average year (S&P +2.5% vs +7.6% full-year) — the dashed cohort line on each chart.
▶ View the live, interactive version with full charts →
The average year’s path for SPX, NQ, the NQ/SPX (tech-vs-broad) ratio, the RUT/SPX (small-vs-large) ratio and the VIX volatility calendar — each shown two ways: the all-years seasonal and the current cycle-year cohort (e.g. midterm), which trace very different paths. This year is overlaid on a dual axis so the trends line up (trend over level). Plus a divergence view of how far this year has run ahead of or behind its seasonal script. Context, not a forecast — the gap is direction-neutral.
- Seasonal composites for SPX (98 yrs, since 1928), NQ, NQ/SPX, RUT/SPX and the VIX volatility calendar — each shown two ways: all years vs the current cycle-year (midterm) cohort, this year overlaid.
- 2026 is a midterm year, and midterm years have historically traced a weaker path than the average year (S&P +2.5% vs +7.6% full-year) — the dashed cohort line on each chart.
- S&P is running +5.4 pts vs its all-years composite (33th percentile, converging). Context, not a forecast: the gap is basically YTD return (r=+0.9985) and mean-reverts only weakly over a quarter+.
When to run this study
Reference, not a trigger — read it any time you want the shape of a typical year and where this one sits against it. The gap to the composite is direction-neutral: a large divergence means this year is off its seasonal script (worth watching), but the gap is as likely to widen as to close, so do not size a trade off the overlay.
Historical results
Where 2026 sits against its all-years composite
| Surface | This year | Composite | Gap | How unusual | Last month | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 11.10 | 5.70 | 5.40 | 33 | converging | 98 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 12.70 | 10 | 2.70 | 5 | converging | 21 |
| NQ/SPX ratio | 1.40 | 3.20 | -1.80 | 33 | widening | 21 |
| RUT/SPX ratio | 3.80 | -1.50 | 5.30 | 67 | converging | 21 |