BTC / SPY Joint Drawdown Leadership
11 signals since 2015-01-01.
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BTC/SPY joint drawdown leadership - BTC capitulation often leads SPY rebounds.
- BTC troughed first in 27% of episodes (median 11d lead). SPY troughed first in 18% of episodes (median 27d lead).
- 11 signals since 2015-01-01.
- Median 1M return: +7.1%, 64% win rate.
- BTC has pulled back -51.1% (qualifies ≥20%). SPY still needs 0.0% more to trigger a joint episode. BTC's recent 90-day low was 0d ago. Historically BTC troughs first 27% of the time with a median lead of 11d. Median 1 month forward: +7.1%. Wait for confirmation before sizing in.
Joint Episodes
11
since 2015
BTC Led
27%
3 eps · med 11d gap
SPY Led
18%
2 eps · med 27d gap
Simultaneous (≤3d)
6
When to run this study
Use when both Bitcoin and SPY are pulling back simultaneously. Shows which asset historically troughs first in joint drawdown episodes, how far apart the bottoms are, and what returns look like from each trough — answering 'BTC just hit a local low, has SPY bottomed yet?' and vice versa.
Historical results
Forward Returns — BTC Troughed First (3 episodes)
| Period | BTC Avg | BTC Win% | SPY★ Avg | SPY★ Win% | SPY Avg | SPY Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 20.83 | 100 | -2.11 | 33.33 | 8.80 | 100 |
| 2W | 22.90 | 100 | 0.95 | 66.67 | 11.90 | 100 |
| 1M | 23.43 | 100 | 6.43 | 66.67 | 14.08 | 100 |
| 3M | 31.86 | 66.67 | 11.02 | 66.67 | 20.27 | 66.67 |
| 6M | 73.48 | 66.67 | 17.91 | 100 | 24.74 | 66.67 |