Consecutive Down Days
Median 1M return: +2.1%, 71% win rate.
▶ View the live, interactive version with full charts →
Identifies short-term oversold conditions: streaks of N consecutive down days with forward return statistics segmented by streak length.
- 956 signals since 1993-01-01.
- Median 1M return: +2.1%, 71% win rate.
- Signal 2026-01-30 (~90td ago): 3M = +4.4% (hist. median +4.4%, below by 0.0%).
- Signal 2026-02-05 (~85td ago): 3M = +8.3% (hist. median +4.4%, above by 3.9%).
- Signal 2026-02-12 (~80td ago): 3M = +10.1% (hist. median +4.4%, above by 5.7%).
- Signal 2026-02-27 (~70td ago): 3M = +10.6% (hist. median +4.4%, above by 6.2%).
- Signal 2026-03-06 (~65td ago): 3M = +10.0% (hist. median +4.4%, above by 5.6%).
- Signal 2026-03-13 (~60td ago): 1M = +5.1% (hist. median +2.1%, above by 3.0%). Next window: 3M (3td remaining), hist. median +4.4%.
- Signal 2026-03-20 (~55td ago): 1M = +8.6% (hist. median +2.1%, above by 6.5%). Next window: 3M (8td remaining), hist. median +4.4%.
- Signal 2026-03-30 (~47td ago): 1M = +12.6% (hist. median +2.1%, above by 10.5%). Next window: 3M (16td remaining), hist. median +4.4%.
- Signal 2026-04-21 (~32td ago): 1M = +5.3% (hist. median +2.1%, above by 3.2%). Next window: 3M (31td remaining), hist. median +4.4%.
- Signal 2026-04-29 (~26td ago): 1M = +6.3% (hist. median +2.1%, above by 4.2%). Next window: 3M (37td remaining), hist. median +4.4%.
- Signal 2026-05-19 (~12td ago): 2W = +2.8% (hist. median +1.4%, above by 1.4%). Next window: 1M (9td remaining), hist. median +2.1%.
- 1 down day(s) — below minimum threshold of 2
Total Events
956
Streaks ≥2d since 1993-01-01
Current Streak
1d
consecutive down days
SPY Price
$737.55
2026-06-05
Avg VIX at Events
21.5
vs overall avg 19.5
When to run this study
Run after 3 or more consecutive down days. Identifies short-term oversold conditions with historically elevated mean-reversion probability — best used for timing tactical entries during brief pullbacks in uptrends.
Historical results
Forward Performance by Streak Length
| Streak | N | Avg Cum Loss | Avg VIX | 1D Win% | 1D Avg | 3D Win% | 3D Avg | 1W Win% | 1W Avg | 2W Win% | 2W Avg | 1M Win% | 1M Avg | 3M Win% | 3M Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d | 521 | -1.62 | 20.90 | 99.60 | 0.89 | 73.10 | 0.93 | 72 | 1.03 | 69.90 | 1.29 | 70.80 | 1.86 | 73.60 | 3.45 |
| 3d | 255 | -2.47 | 21.20 | 99.60 | 0.91 | 72.20 | 0.95 | 69 | 1.05 | 68.60 | 1.22 | 64.60 | 1.23 | 73.80 | 3.36 |
| 4d | 114 | -3.24 | 22.80 | 99.10 | 1.07 | 74.60 | 1.18 | 80.70 | 1.75 | 76.30 | 2.05 | 78.10 | 2.84 | 74.30 | 4.17 |
| 5d | 48 | -4.24 | 23.80 | 100 | 1.19 | 70.80 | 1.11 | 79.20 | 1.83 | 77.10 | 2.34 | 77.10 | 3.33 | 79.20 | 5.64 |
| 6d | 11 | -5.80 | 26.70 | 100 | 1.82 | 72.70 | 1.69 | 72.70 | 1.03 | 63.60 | 0.75 | 100 | 5.31 | 81.80 | 7.52 |
| 7d | 5 | -11.13 | 38.60 | 100 | 4.61 | 80 | 2.52 | 80 | 1.68 | 40 | -1.11 | 60 | 0.39 | 80 | 5.97 |
| 8d+ | 2 | -9.16 | 30.80 | 100 | 3.05 | 100 | 3.30 | 50 | 3.11 | 50 | 3.22 | 50 | 4.91 | 50 | 9.06 |