Bull Market Regime
Historically 86% of bulls that reached year 3 reached year 4; that cohort ran a median 5 years total.
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How old is this bull market, has it doubled off the low, and how stretched is momentum? Bull markets are detected with the 20% swing filter on the S&P 500; the survival table shows how bulls of each age fared, the doubling table shows what history did after a +100% run, and the momentum panel percentile-ranks the S&P 500 Momentum factor (SPMO/MTUM) excess return vs SPY over 1Y and 3Y.
- This bull is 4.0 years old and up 116% off the low.
- Historically 86% of bulls that reached year 3 reached year 4; that cohort ran a median 5 years total.
- After doubling, prior bulls added a median +63% over ~1.7 more years.
- Momentum (SPMO) 1Y excess vs SPY is at the 52nd percentile of its history.
When to run this study
Run any time you want regime context rather than a timing signal. It answers three questions at once: how old is this bull market and how have bulls this age fared, has it doubled off the low (and what did prior doublings do next), and how stretched is the momentum trade vs its own history. Best read at major-milestone moments — a new birthday for the bull, a fresh doubling, or a momentum percentile pushing into the extreme.
Historical results
Bull-Market Survival by Age (completed bulls)
| Reached | N bulls | Reached next yr % | Eventual med. length (yrs) | Eventual med. gain % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 10 | 90 | 4.60 | 105 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 78 | 5 | 96 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 86 | 5.20 | 126 |
| Year 4 | 6 | 83 | 5.70 | 177 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 60 | 6.20 | 229 |
| Year 6 | 3 | 67 | 10.90 | 400 |
| Year 7 | 2 | 100 | 11.60 | 491 |
| Year 8 | 2 | 100 | 11.60 | 491 |