Breadth Oscillator
Median 1M return: +2.3%, 69% win rate.
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McClellan Oscillator + Summation Index from universe-proxy A/D — breadth capitulation events.
- 171 signals since 2005-01-01.
- Median 1M return: +2.3%, 69% win rate.
- Signal 2026-03-20 (~85td ago): 3M = +15.1% (hist. median +5.5%, above by 9.6%). Next window: 6M (41td remaining), hist. median +9.2%.
- Breadth neutral (oscillator 0.0013, summation 0.255)
As of
2026-07-17
Oscillator
+0.0013
Summation
+0.3
MA Regime
Above 200D MA
Oversold Signals
171
Overbought Signals
129
1M Median (OS)
+2.3%
1M Win Rate (OS)
69%
When to run this study
Run when you suspect broad market stress or euphoria. Oversold readings (oscillator < -0.05) historically precede short-term bounces, especially when accompanied by elevated VIX. Overbought readings (> +0.05) signal exhaustion risk. Pairs well with confluence signals study.
Historical results
Oversold Signals — Forward Returns (N=171)
| Period | N | Win% | Avg | Median | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 171 | 64.90 | 0.60 | 0.92 | 9.74 | -19.79 |
| 2W | 171 | 67.80 | 1.31 | 1.78 | 14.74 | -15.52 |
| 1M | 171 | 69 | 1.87 | 2.32 | 23.35 | -24.14 |
| 3M | 171 | 75.40 | 4.84 | 5.49 | 38.38 | -15.17 |
| 6M | 169 | 82.20 | 7.97 | 9.17 | 46.95 | -32.71 |