ATH Follow-Through
A new June ATH led to a new July high 20/23 of years (July positive 61%, median +1.1%).
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When the S&P prints a new all-time high in a month, how often does it print another the next month? New highs cluster — and June→July is the strongest hand-off (a fresh June high has led to a new July high the large majority of years, with July positive nearly always).
- 23 signals since 1950-01-01.
- A new June ATH led to a new July high 20/23 of years (July positive 61%, median +1.1%).
June→July follow
20/23
new July ATH after a June ATH
July after June-ATH
+1.1%
61% positive
2026 June ATH?
yes
Sample
since 1950
When to run this study
Run when the S&P is at or near record highs, especially heading into July. Measures how often a new all-time high in one month is followed by another the next — new highs beget new highs. June→July is the strongest hand-off.
Historical results
June ATH → July: 20 of 23 years made a new July high
| Year | New July ATH? | July return |
|---|---|---|
| 1950 | no | 0.80 |
| 1952 | yes | 1.80 |
| 1954 | yes | 5.70 |
| 1955 | yes | 6.10 |
| 1964 | yes | 1.80 |
| 1968 | yes | -1.80 |
| 1983 | no | -3 |
| 1985 | yes | -0.50 |
| 1986 | yes | -5.90 |
| 1987 | yes | 4.80 |
| 1990 | yes | -0.50 |
| 1995 | yes | 3.20 |
| 1997 | yes | 7.80 |
| 1998 | yes | -1.20 |
| 1999 | yes | -3.20 |
Showing 15 of 24 rows — see the live version for all.