SteadyTapeQuantitative Market Research

Apr+Jun Both Green Barometer

April+June Both Green Barometer (provisional): April +9.68%, June-to-date -0.57%. Median RoY forward: +10.8%.

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When both April and June close positive, rest-of-year from end of June has been bullish 86% of the time historically (n=21, WR holdout 88% -- the strongest out-of-sample stats of any conjunction pattern). Mid-year floor reference.

April
+9.68%
June
-0.57%
Both Green
Pending

When to run this study

Run after April closes and again after June closes. The signal finalizes on the last trading day of June when both April and June are positive -- a mid-year confirmation with the strongest out-of-sample holdout stats of the conjunction patterns (88% WR on 2010-present data). Floor reference for the second half of the year.

Historical results

April+June Both-Green Years -- Rest-of-Year SPY Returns

YearAprilJuneRoY
20231.215.488.04
20214.172.3311.70
202018.011.3622.25
20192.877.2310.90
20140.031.956.09
20112.460.57-3.80
20036.820.6514.96
19993.025.917.77
19980.473.789.57
19975.584.5710.75
19952.712.2914.32