April ATH-Close Barometer
April 2026 closed at a fresh ATH (close $716.81) -- historically strong follow-through over 3M/6M/RoY horizons. Median 6 months forward: +7.8%. Historical edge after April ATH close: 3M median +3.6% WR 83% (n=6); 6M median +7.8% WR 100% (n=6); RoY median +12.4% WR 100% (n=6). Use the close as a floor reference.
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When April closes at a fresh all-time high (close >= cumulative max of all prior month-end closes), historical rest-of-year returns are 100% positive (n=15, both training AND holdout). 3M edge also strong (100% holdout WR). Top-quality finding from the SPX pattern miner.
- 26 signals since 2000-01-03.
- April 2026 closed at a fresh ATH (close $716.81) -- historically strong follow-through over 3M/6M/RoY horizons. Median 6 months forward: +7.8%. Historical edge after April ATH close: 3M median +3.6% WR 83% (n=6); 6M median +7.8% WR 100% (n=6); RoY median +12.4% WR 100% (n=6). Use the close as a floor reference.
When to run this study
Run after April closes. The signal finalizes on the last trading day of April when SPX records a fresh all-time-high month-end close. Validates the strongest seasonal pattern surfaced by the study_generator: 100% historical RoY win rate, 100% holdout WR. Use the close as a floor reference for dip-buys through year-end.
Historical results
April ATH-Close Years -- All Horizons
| Year | Sig Date | Close | 3M | 6M | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2021-04-30 | 388.75 | 5.21 | 10.77 | 14.96 |
| 2019 | 2019-04-30 | 264.18 | 1.65 | 4.11 | 11.05 |
| 2017 | 2017-04-28 | 205.92 | 4.16 | 9.31 | 13.77 |
| 2014 | 2014-04-30 | 153.24 | 3.03 | 6.20 | 10.79 |
| 2013 | 2013-04-30 | 127.37 | 6.21 | 12.08 | 17.48 |
| 2007 | 2007-04-30 | 104.12 | -1.31 | 4.88 | 0.02 |