April ATH-Close Barometer

April 2026 closed at a fresh ATH (close $718.66) -- historically strong follow-through over 3M/6M/RoY horizons. Median RoY forward: +13.8%. Historical edge after April ATH close: 3M median +3.0% WR 82% (n=11); 6M median +8.8% WR 91% (n=11); RoY median +13.8% WR 100% (n=11). Use the close as a floor reference.

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When April closes at a fresh all-time high (close >= cumulative max of all prior month-end closes), historical rest-of-year returns are 100% positive (n=15, both training AND holdout). 3M edge also strong (100% holdout WR). Top-quality finding from the SPX pattern miner.

33 signals since 1993-01-29.
April 2026 closed at a fresh ATH (close $718.66) -- historically strong follow-through over 3M/6M/RoY horizons. Median RoY forward: +13.8%. Historical edge after April ATH close: 3M median +3.0% WR 82% (n=11); 6M median +8.8% WR 91% (n=11); RoY median +13.8% WR 100% (n=11). Use the close as a floor reference.

April ATH-close

YES

3M edge

med +3.0% / WR 82% (n=11)

6M edge

med +8.8% / WR 91% (n=11)

RoY edge

med +13.8% / WR 100% (n=11)

When to run this study

Run after April closes. The signal finalizes on the last trading day of April when SPX records a fresh all-time-high month-end close. Validates the strongest seasonal pattern surfaced by the study_generator: 100% historical RoY win rate, 100% holdout WR. Use the close as a floor reference for dip-buys through year-end.

Historical results

April ATH-Close Years -- All Horizons

Year	Sig Date	Close	3M	6M	RoY
2021	2021-04-30	389.75	5.21	10.77	14.96
2019	2019-04-30	264.86	1.65	4.11	11.05
2017	2017-04-28	206.45	4.16	9.31	13.77
2014	2014-04-30	153.63	3.03	6.20	10.79
2013	2013-04-30	127.70	6.21	12.08	17.48
2007	2007-04-30	104.39	-1.31	4.88	0.02
1999	1999-04-30	83.02	0.16	3.42	11.14
1998	1998-04-30	68.51	0.71	-1.08	11.86
1997	1997-04-30	48.58	19.46	15.70	22.59
1996	1996-04-30	38.91	-1.46	8.80	14.67
1995	1995-04-28	30.04	9.48	14.05	21.25