A/D Capitulation
Median 1M return: +1.9%, 69% win rate.
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9:1 advance/decline capitulation events on SPY/QQQ baskets - washout-low signals.
- 519 signals since 2003-01-01.
- Median 1M return: +1.9%, 69% win rate.
- 372 dual-confirm events (both baskets 10:1 within ±1d) — highest conviction.
- No recent capitulation events (last 15 days)
As of
2026-07-20
SPY Basket
Normal (D/A=2.2×)
167 adv / 362 dec
Nasdaq Basket
Normal (D/A=1.5×)
31 adv / 45 dec
SPY 10:1 Up Days
258
SPY 10:1 Down Days
261
Dual-Confirm
372
B2B Thrusts
133
When to run this study
Run during or immediately after sharp market selloffs or relief rallies. A 9:1 down day during a crash and a subsequent 9:1 up day together are among the most reliable capitulation + reversal signals in the historical record. Dual-confirm signals (both SPY basket and Nasdaq basket hit 9:1) are the strongest.
Historical results
SPY Forward Returns after 10:1 Up Days (N=258)
| Period | N | Win% | Avg | Median | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 258 | 50 | -0.15 | 0 | 3.97 | -4.99 |
| 3D | 258 | 56.20 | -0.02 | 0.22 | 5.95 | -7.48 |
| 1W | 258 | 58.10 | -0.09 | 0.27 | 8.33 | -17.24 |
| 2W | 258 | 61.20 | 0.12 | 0.87 | 12.48 | -22.40 |
| 1M | 258 | 68.60 | 1.05 | 1.91 | 15.17 | -21.92 |
| 3M | 258 | 71.30 | 3.59 | 5.08 | 32.07 | -23.91 |
| 6M | 258 | 79.50 | 7.50 | 8.69 | 44.47 | -37.30 |