A/D Capitulation
Median 1M return: +1.9%, 68% win rate.
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9:1 advance/decline capitulation events on SPY/QQQ baskets - washout-low signals.
- 519 signals since 2003-01-01.
- Median 1M return: +1.9%, 68% win rate.
- 377 dual-confirm events (both baskets 10:1 within ±1d) — highest conviction.
- No recent capitulation events (last 15 days)
As of
2026-06-05
SPY Basket
Normal (D/A=1.2×)
235 adv / 293 dec
Nasdaq Basket
Normal (D/A=4.8×)
13 adv / 63 dec
SPY 10:1 Up Days
259
SPY 10:1 Down Days
260
Dual-Confirm
377
B2B Thrusts
133
When to run this study
Run during or immediately after sharp market selloffs or relief rallies. A 9:1 down day during a crash and a subsequent 9:1 up day together are among the most reliable capitulation + reversal signals in the historical record. Dual-confirm signals (both SPY basket and Nasdaq basket hit 9:1) are the strongest.
Historical results
SPY Forward Returns after 10:1 Up Days (N=259)
| Period | N | Win% | Avg | Median | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 259 | 49.40 | -0.16 | 0 | 3.97 | -4.99 |
| 3D | 259 | 56 | -0.04 | 0.21 | 5.95 | -7.48 |
| 1W | 259 | 58.30 | -0.09 | 0.28 | 8.33 | -17.24 |
| 2W | 259 | 61.40 | 0.12 | 0.87 | 12.48 | -22.40 |
| 1M | 259 | 68.30 | 1.04 | 1.90 | 15.17 | -21.92 |
| 3M | 259 | 71.40 | 3.60 | 5.08 | 32.07 | -23.91 |
| 6M | 259 | 78.80 | 7.37 | 8.57 | 44.47 | -37.30 |