AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
Median 1M return: +1.6%, 64% win rate.
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Weekly AAII bullish/neutral/bearish sentiment readings - contrarian signal at extreme bearish levels.
- 109 signals since 2000-01-01.
- Median 1M return: +1.6%, 64% win rate.
- AAII sentiment neutral - Bullish 36.3% / Neutral 26.7% / Bearish 37.0%
Bullish
36.3%
47%ile vs 52W
Neutral
26.7%
81%ile vs 52W
Bearish
37.0%
45%ile vs 52W
Bull-Bear Spread
-0.7
Signal threshold: -25
Hist 3M Win Rate
68%
109 bearish extreme events since 2000-01-01
When to run this study
Run weekly after Thursday close (AAII survey results typically released Thursday). Most actionable when Bearish% spikes above 45% — historically a strong contrarian buy signal for SPY over the following 1-3 months. A Neutral% below 15% shows nearly everyone has strong conviction, often coinciding with market inflection points. Combine with VIX levels and drawdown depth for confirmation.
Historical results
Forward Returns by Bearish Severity
| Bearish Level | N | 1W Win% | 1W Avg% | 1M Win% | 1M Avg% | 3M Win% | 3M Avg% | 6M Win% | 6M Avg% | 1Y Win% | 1Y Avg% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme (>=55%) | 2 | 50 | -1.63 | 50 | 2.79 | 100 | 13.46 | 100 | 24.76 | 100 | 41.95 |
| Very High (50–55%) | 8 | 50 | 0 | 62.50 | 2.05 | 50 | 4.42 | 62.50 | 8.29 | 62.50 | 15.45 |
| High (45–50%) | 29 | 48.30 | -0.34 | 51.70 | -0.56 | 71.40 | 2.38 | 64.30 | 3.12 | 73.10 | 8.66 |
| Elevated (40–45%) | 70 | 61.40 | 0.64 | 69.60 | 1.26 | 68.10 | 2.85 | 71 | 5.74 | 77.30 | 12.31 |