AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
Median 1M return: +1.6%, 64% win rate.
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Weekly AAII bullish/neutral/bearish sentiment readings - contrarian signal at extreme bearish levels.
- 115 signals since 2000-01-01.
- Median 1M return: +1.6%, 64% win rate.
- Elevated bearish sentiment - Bearish at 41.4% (elevated >=40%). Median 1 month forward: +2.2%. In bullish normal trend regime: 80% win rate over 39 events.
Bullish
37.8%
58%ile vs 52W
Neutral
20.7%
25%ile vs 52W
Bearish
41.4%
60%ile vs 52W
Bull-Bear Spread
-3.6
Signal threshold: -25
Hist 3M Win Rate
70%
115 bearish extreme events since 2000-01-01
When to run this study
Run weekly after Thursday close (AAII survey results typically released Thursday). Most actionable when Bearish% spikes above 45% — historically a strong contrarian buy signal for SPY over the following 1-3 months. A Neutral% below 15% shows nearly everyone has strong conviction, often coinciding with market inflection points. Combine with VIX levels and drawdown depth for confirmation.
Historical results
Forward Returns by Bearish Severity
| Bearish Level | N | 1W Win% | 1W Avg% | 1M Win% | 1M Avg% | 3M Win% | 3M Avg% | 6M Win% | 6M Avg% | 1Y Win% | 1Y Avg% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme (>=55%) | 2 | 50 | -1.63 | 50 | 2.79 | 100 | 13.46 | 100 | 24.76 | 100 | 41.95 |
| Very High (50–55%) | 9 | 55.60 | 0.09 | 66.70 | 1.86 | 50 | 4.42 | 62.50 | 8.29 | 62.50 | 15.45 |
| High (45–50%) | 30 | 50 | -0.28 | 53.30 | -0.47 | 73.30 | 2.72 | 65.50 | 3.54 | 74.10 | 8.98 |
| Elevated (40–45%) | 74 | 62.20 | 0.62 | 68.50 | 1.25 | 69.40 | 2.89 | 71 | 5.74 | 78.30 | 12.77 |