Seasonal Windows

8 of 34 upcoming windows clear all three bars: dates hold up when nudged, 80%+ of years positive, and more than 1% typical gain.

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Finds calendar windows like "AAPL between Aug 11 and Aug 14 — up 19 of the last 21 years, typically +1.6%" across the whole universe. Each one is scored against that name's own base rate, checked for whether it survives nudging the dates, and reported with how many equally good windows pure chance produces in a scan this size.

SRPT Aug 20 -> Aug 27: up 18 of 21 years, typically +4.5% — the strongest window opening in the next 21 days.
8 of 34 upcoming windows clear all three bars: dates hold up when nudged, 80%+ of years positive, and more than 1% typical gain.
Scanned 2,645,520 windows. Shuffle the calendar so no real seasonality can survive and the average stock still shows a best window winning 85.7% of years — which is why a high record alone means nothing here.
Median edge over each name's own base rate is +31.0 pts in-sample; out of sample this kind of selection has delivered +1.9 to +3.1 pts. A real tilt, not a sure thing.

Worth Watching

clear all three bars, next 21d

Opening Soon

windows starting within 21d

Beats Pure Luck

of every window in the scan

Windows Scanned

2,645,520

604 tickers x 12 lengths x 365 days

In-Sample Edge

+31.0 pts

median of upcoming set — selection-inflated

Out-of-Sample Edge

+1.9 to +3.1 pts

what selection like this actually delivers

Current rankings

Watchlist — AAPL, NVDA, SPY, QQQ

Ticker	Days Away	Dates	Win Rate	Record	Last 10y	All-Time	Typical Gain	Gain vs Usual	Base Rate
AAPL	-1	Aug 10 -> Aug 13	89	17 of 19	100	86	1.72	1.62	51.90
QQQ	29	Sep 9 -> Sep 12	84	16 of 19	67	86	1.05	0.93	54
SPY	75	Oct 25 -> Nov 6	84	16 of 19	78	85	1.82	1.17	61.10
NVDA	79	Oct 29 -> Nov 8	89	17 of 19	89	86	5.21	4.10	57
QQQ	96	Nov 15 -> Nov 29	84	16 of 19	89	81	1.98	1.02	61.70
SPY	101	Nov 20 -> Dec 1	89	17 of 19	89	79	2.04	1.45	60.20
SPY	107	Nov 26 -> Dec 6	84	16 of 19	78	79	0.66	0.11	59.80
QQQ	124	Dec 13 -> Dec 24	89	17 of 19	78	81	1.17	0.40	60.30
NVDA	125	Dec 14 -> Dec 21	84	16 of 19	78	81	2.05	1.27	55.70
SPY	131	Dec 20 -> Dec 26	89	17 of 19	100	85	0.80	0.46	58.10
NVDA	160	Jan 18 -> Jan 24	85	17 of 20	90	82	4.12	3.39	55.10
NVDA	173	Jan 31 -> Feb 9	80	16 of 20	90	77	5.14	4.14	56.60
AAPL	175	Feb 2 -> Feb 12	85	17 of 20	80	82	2.05	1.17	58.30
NVDA	178	Feb 5 -> Feb 16	80	16 of 20	90	82	4.85	3.62	57.40
SPY	178	Feb 5 -> Feb 16	85	17 of 20	80	76	1.19	0.59	60.20

Showing 15 of 32 rows — see the live version for all.